News/Event
Oil prices remain depressed on Tuesday, as hopes of a new round of peace talks between the US and Iran boosted hopes of a de-escalation of the Middle East conflict.
UOB strategists interpret Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) July 2026 MPS as a calibrated tightening via a modest increase in the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) slope to an estimated 1.25% per annum, smaller than April’s move.
The British Pound (GBP) trades with caution at around 1.3300 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday.
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some follow-through selling after the previous day's failure to find acceptance above $4,100, weakening below the $4,050 level during the Asian session on Tuesday.
Bitcoin (BTC) edges lower on Tuesday, extending its losses of over 2% from the previous day. The broader crypto market suffered nearly $600 million in liquidations over the last 24 hours amid renewed sell-off pressure.
GBP/USD edges lower after opening at a bullish gap, remaining within positive territory and trading around 1.3290 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect USD/CNH to stay broadly rangebound near term, with the daily People's Bank of China (PBoC) fix clustered around 6.79 and acting as an anchor rather than a directional signal.
The US Dollar (USD) traded mostly unchanged on Monday as a temporary pause in hostilities between the United States and Iran reduces demand for safe-haven assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded lower earlier in the session but moved closed to breakeven by the late American afternoon.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Eurozone leading indicators, including Germany’s IFO, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and ZEW, point to improving activity.
EUR/USD reverses its early gains on Monday and moves toward filling the bullish gap at the weekly open. The pair initially rose after a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran improved risk sentiment, sent Oil prices sharply lower and weighed on the US Dollar (USD).
BNP Paribas strategists project Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to slow to 0.8% in 2026 from 1.5% in 2025 due to spillovers from the Middle East conflict and weaker consumption.
GBP/JPY edges lower on Monday as the British Pound (GBP) weakens across the board following its recent advance, with traders trimming exposure ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest-rate decision on Thursday. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 217.84, down 0.23% on the day.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that easing Oil prices, helped by reduced Iran–US tensions, are bringing crude closer to their base case of a gradual downtrend.
ING’s Francesco Pesole expects the Bank of England (BoE) to leave rates unchanged this week, with a 7–2 vote remaining the base case, although Catherine Mann could join Huw Pill and Megan Greene in supporting a rate hike.
HSBC strategists see EUR/USD at risk of moving lower as the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a cautious, data-dependent stance and refrains from signalling further rate hikes.
Gold (XAU/USD) opens the week with a bullish gap on Monday as a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran improves risk sentiment and sends Oil prices sharply lower. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,102, up 1.24% on the day.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains vulnerable, despite the safe-haven US Dollar’s (USD) weakness on Monday, and extends losses for the second consecutive day.
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay notes that Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have pulled back after sharp gains, but underlying risks to Oil remain elevated. Escalation in the Persian Gulf and potential closure of the Strait of Bab al-Mandab are seen as key threats to supply routes.
The Japanese Yen starts the week on a positive note against the US Dollar (USD), but is down against its other currency peers.
Gold (XAU/USD) opens with a bullish gap at the start of a new week, though it struggles to capitalize on the momentum or find acceptance above the $4,100 mark as bulls seem reluctant ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting, starting on Tuesday.
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) begin the week on a firm footing after surging over 1%, 4% and 1%, respectively, in the previous week. BTC holds above key technical resistance after recording its fourth consecutive weekly gain.
USD/JPY remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 163.60 during the Asian hours on Monday.
AUD/USD extends its gains for the second consecutive trading day, hovering near 0.7000 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) declines alongside a sharp drop in oil prices.
Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be entering the early stages of a potential bottoming process, with on-chain data showing signs of accumulation amid broader market pressure, according to Glassnode in a Friday report.
The upcoming week will be dominated by monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ).
EUR/USD trades lower near the 1.1370 area on Friday, struggling despite stronger-than-expected Eurozone business-activity figures. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firmer near 101.50, offering limited support to the pair.
Silver (XAG/USD) edges higher on Friday as a pullback in Oil prices pushes US Treasury yields lower, while the US Dollar (USD) fluctuates near recent highs. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $58.60, up 2.40% on the day.
The cryptocurrency market is broadly pulling back this Friday following an early-week surge that pushed Bitcoin (BTC) near the $67,000 mark. BTC has since retreated below $65,000, as escalating tension and hostilities between the United States and Iran fuel investor caution.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the British Pound (GBP) is slightly higher versus the US Dollar (USD) but lagging most G10 peers.
Pakistan and Iran are exploring a possible path toward renewed negotiations with the United States (US) as part of a new diplomatic initiative supported by China, Reuters reported, citing several sources familiar with the discussions.
AUD/USD trades higher near the 0.6990 area on Friday, recovering from an earlier pullback as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to gain clear momentum following mixed United States (US) business-activity data.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Japanese Yen (JPY) is slightly firmer versus the US Dollar (USD) but still underperforming most G10 currencies. USD/JPY trades near levels last seen in 1986, with limited resistance overhead.
Rabobank’s Stefan Koopman expects the Bank of England (BoE) to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July and unchanged through 2026, even as markets still price some chance of further tightening.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $58.55 at the time of writing on Friday, up 2.24% on the day, benefiting from a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD) following its recent rally.
The Euro (EUR) trades slightly higher to near 1.1385 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The major currency pair edges up as the US Dollar corrects marginally after a strong upside move the previous day.
Deutsche Bank strategists note that the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its deposit rate at 2.25%, while its communication continued to leave the door open to further tightening.
According to Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) kept its one-week repo rate at 37.0% and maintained the corridor at 35.5%-40.0%. With the repo window still closed, effective funding remains near 40%, which Ghose views as Lira-supportive.
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that Gold has come under pressure as higher Oil prices stoke inflation concerns and push yields and the US Dollar higher.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, drifts lower during the early European session on Friday and erodes a part of the previous day's strong gains back closer to the monthly high.
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martin Kocher said on Friday that he doesn’t see any hard evidence of second-round effects, but the central bank will act if the inflation outlook deteriorates.
The Euro (EUR) rallies further against the British Pound (GBP) as the latter weakens despite upbeat United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for June. The EUR/GBP pair jumps to near 0.8550 in the European trading session on Friday, the highest level seen in two weeks.
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Brent has broken above $100/bbl as Middle East tensions escalate and supply risks mount. They highlight threats to flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as disruptions to Kazakh exports.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades marginally higher at around 0.6976 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday.
The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Friday and moves away from a one-and-a-half-week trough, around the 0.5760 region touched the previous day.
EUR/USD gains ground after posting modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.1380 during the Asian hours on Friday.
Gold price (XAU/USD) faces some selling pressure to around $4,050 during the early Asian session on Friday.
AUD/USD trades lower near the 0.6970 area on Thursday, giving back earlier gains as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on the back of upbeat United States (US) labor market data and continued hostilities between the US and Iran.
Crude Oil is staging the kind of one-day advance that usually arrives strapped to a flash headline, and the wires have duly supplied several, but the tape refuses to behave like a reaction.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil rallies more than 5% on Thursday as rising tensions in the Middle East deepen supply risks. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $90.35 per barrel, its highest level since June 11.
Commerzbank strategist Michael Pfister argues that Banxico’s recent rate cuts were broadly justified by moderating inflation and Mexico’s weakening economy, leaving little reason for the central bank to tighten policy despite markets pricing in roughly three rate hikes.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.
BNY's Geoff Yu highlights that Brent has surged into the high $90s as Houthi attacks and U.S.-Iran escalation raise disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Bond markets are treating this as an inflation shock, with higher yields and tighter financial conditions.
USD/CAD rebounds on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) regains momentum amid rising tensions in the Middle East and growing Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, while traders show a muted reaction to Canadian Retail Sales data.
Cryptocurrency prices are trending lower on Thursday, pressured by renewed inflation concerns stemming from ongoing tensions between the United States (US) and Iran and persistently elevated Oil prices.
The British Pound (GBP) consolidates losses below 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, on track for a 0.6% weekly decline, following a reversal from 1.3558 highs last week.
The Euro (EUR) is giving away previous gains against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, as investors position for the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision.
USD/CHF extends its gains for the fourth successive day, trading around 0.8150 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground after recovering its daily losses amid rising geopolitical tensions between the United States (US)-and Iran.
The Euro (EUR) remains steady above 1.1400 against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, showing a surprising resilience to the surging Oil prices and the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to hold the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the deposit facility steady at 2.4% and 2.25%, respectively. The decision will be announced on Thursday at 12:15 GMT.
Rabobank strategist Michael Every warns that escalating conflict around Hormuz and the Red Sea could push Brent above its current USD 95.5 level and widen crack spreads further.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 101.00 in the early European trading hours on Thursday. The DXY weakens amid improved risk sentiment.
Lloyd Chan at MUFG underscores escalating US–Iran tensions and threats to energy infrastructure and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
The USD/CAD pair attracts some sellers to near 1.4060 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. A rise in crude oil prices provides some support to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD).
Gold (XAU/USD) holds above the $4,100 mark during the Asian session on Thursday and, for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's modest pullback from an over two-week high.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 101.00 during the Asian session on Thursday.
EUR/USD extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.1410 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair gains ground as the Euro (EUR) finds solid support ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) upcoming interest rate decision.
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts fresh buyers near the $58.25-$58.20 zone during the Asian session on Thursday, stalling the previous day's modest pullback from the $61.00 neighborhood, or an over two-week high.
The Houthis, the Iran-backed group in Yemen, on Thursday claimed an attack on two Saudi oil tankers transiting through the Red Sea, identified as ENCELA and LAYLIA, saying the vessels violated the naval blockade imposed by the group on Monday, the Guardian reported.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in positive territory around $4,125 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal extends its recovery as ongoing geopolitical uncertainties continue to underpin safe-haven demand.
Gold price (XAU/USD) surges over 1.50% on Wednesday, cracks a key resistance trendline and hits a new two-week high as the Greenback weakens. This Bullion price action comes despite rising tensions and hostilities between the US and Iran.
TD Securities strategists expect modest US Dollar (USD) strength in Q3 2026 as positioning has room to rebuild.
Societe Generale economist Sam Cartwright analyzes June United Kingdom (UK) inflation, noting headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.6% year-on-year, below Bank of England (BoE) projections, with core inflation steady at 2.6%.
Bitcoin (BTC) trades slightly lower around $66,000 on Wednesday as tensions in the Middle East escalate further. Still, the Crypto King is up over 2.5% so far this week.
Chris Turner at ING notes EUR/USD has held up relatively well despite energy price gains and wider natural gas prices.
GBP/USD remains steady after four days of losses, trading around 1.3370 during the European hours on Wednesday. The pair is holding a mildly bearish near‑term bias as spot remains capped beneath the 50‑day and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).
According to a Bloomberg report, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely seen holding interest rates steady at the July meeting.
Oil prices continue rallying on Wednesday as hostilities in Iran threaten to escalate out of control, and reports of vessels turning around in the Red Sea heighten concerns about supply disruptions.
The EUR/USD pair holds positive ground near 1.1410 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday, bolstered by a hawkish tone from the European Central Bank (ECB).
USD/CHF continues its winning streak for the third successive day, trading around 0.8130 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from growing risk aversion tied to escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.
The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick and extends its sideways consolidative price move around the 0.7000 psychological mark on Wednesday.
The broader cryptocurrency market is witnessing an easing of bearish momentum, with Bitcoin (BTC) holding above $66,000 on Wednesday. Altcoins including Ondo (ONDO) and Gram (GRAM), formerly known as Toncoin, are leading gains over the last 24 hours, driven by new features.
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) remain on the front foot on Wednesday as the broader crypto market extends its gains so far this week.
Yemen’s Houthis said that they have closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Saudi-linked shipping in retaliation for the kingdom’s blockade on Yemen and a recent attack on the international airport in Yemen’s rebel-held capital, Sanaa, the Guardian reported on Wednesday.
The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) said that it completed another night of attacks that targeted “military operations centers, maritime capabilities, aircraft hangars, drone storage facilities, and military logistics infrastructure to further degrade Iran’s ability to threaten commercial sh
The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on its strong weekly gains registered over the past two days and edges lower during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.4100 round figure, though the fundamental backdrop warrants caution for aggressive bearish traders.
NZD/USD depreciates after opening at a bullish gap, remaining in the positive territory and trading around 0.5830 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.7010 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) as the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate hike rises.
A Reuters poll revealed that the Federal Reserve is most likely to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year as it battles stubbornly high inflation that has remained above the Fed’s 2% goal for at least 5 years.
Silver price (XAG/USD) surges over 4.50% on Tuesday, reaching five-day highs, clearing $59.00 as buyers push the white metal to test a downslope resistance trendline near the $59.65/$50.75 range, about to surpass the $60.00 mark.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $84.40 at the time of writing on Tuesday, up 2.58% on the day, as concerns over global Oil supplies continue to support prices despite hopes for a diplomatic de-escalation in the Middle East.
The Pound Sterling loses some ground against the US Dollar, down by 0.48%, as risk appetite in the foreign exchange markets deteriorates, with the Greenback reclaiming key technical levels in the US Dollar Index (DXY) amid the escalation of the US-Iran conflict.
AUD/USD trades lower near the 0.7010 area on Tuesday, although the pair has retreated from its four-week high. The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains above the psychological 0.7000 level as softer United States (US) economic data limits demand for the US Dollar (USD).
EUR/USD edges lower on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1405, hovering near one-week lows.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight the Euro (EUR) trading quietly against the US Dollar (USD) in a tight low-1.14 range, with limited reaction to stronger ZEW sentiment data. Short-term rates have stabilized after a hawkish repricing, supporting EUR via yield spreads.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that the sell-off in gilts and British Pound (GBP) has stabilized after Prime Minister Andy Burnham appointed John Healey as Chancellor and pledged to stick to fiscal rules.
ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note that the Dollar is drawing broad-based support as markets slowly react to escalating tensions in the Gulf.
USD/CAD trades on the front foot as tensions in the Middle East keep the US Dollar (USD) firmly bid, while the Canadian Dollar also faces pressure from renewed trade frictions with the United States.
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights Japan’s new fiscal guidelines under Prime Minister Takaichi, which prioritize proactive spending and long-term investment over near-term consolidation.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has recovered overnight losses versus the US Dollar (USD) after news that President Trump may impose new tariffs on Canadian exports.
Lee Hardman at MUFG highlights that the Pound has modestly recovered after losses following Andy Burnham’s appointment as UK Prime Minister, while long-dated gilts remain under pressure.
The British Pound (GBP) is one of the weakest performers among major currencies, extending its reversal against the US Dollar for the fourth consecutive week.
Gold price (XAU/USD) is up 1.5% to near $4,067 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The precious metal outperforms as the rally in oil prices has stalled, with investors turning confident that negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran towards peace have resumed.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) keeps drifting lower on Tuesday, unfazed by the mild US Dollar’s weakness.
GBP/USD remains weaker for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 1.3430 during the European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a prevailing bullish bias as the pair remains within the ascending channel.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – struggles to capitalize on the previous day's late rebound from the $79.50-$79.45 area and trades with a negative bias through the first half of the European session on Tuesday.
Bitcoin (BTC) extends its gains, trading above $65,800 on Tuesday after closing above the key technical hurdle the previous day. The bullish price action is further supported by the return of institutional demand, with spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) continuing their inflows on Monday.
USD/JPY gains ground for the fourth successive day, trading around 162.60 during the European hours on Tuesday. Japanese banks will be closed due to Marine Day bank holiday.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) has trimmed some losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, as USD/CHF bulls failed to find acceptance above the 0.8100 area.
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, July 21:
ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note Brent retreated below $90/bbl as hopes for US–Iran de-escalation offset rising supply risks. They highlight reports of a proposed 10‑day ceasefire and ongoing large divisions between the US and Iran.
The GBP/USD pair holds positive ground near 1.3450 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The British Pound (GBP) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) following the UK employment report.
The USD/CAD pair attracts buyers for the second straight day on Tuesday and recovers further from its lowest level since June 17, around the 1.4000 psychological mark touched the previous day.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is remaining in the positive territory and trading around 101.00 during the Asian session on Tuesday.
GBP/USD steadies after three days of losses, trading around 1.3430 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts buyers for the third straight day and climbs back above the $57.00 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday.
The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers to around 0.5865 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) following hotter New Zealand inflation data.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rises around 0.2% toward 101.00 as higher United States (US) Treasury yields and escalating tensions in the Middle East support the Greenback.
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan highlights that higher Oil prices and persistent inflation risks are weighing on Asian currencies, with the Indian Rupee (INR) and Thai Baht (THB) underperforming against the US Dollar.
Gold price edges down some 0.19% on Monday as hostilities between the US and Iran extended, following a short-lived truce that began after both countries agreed to a ceasefire, which was broken nine days ago. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,011.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) edges higher on Monday as heightened tensions in the Middle East drive demand for the safe-haven Greenback.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the front foot on Monday as buyers defend the $55.00 mark after the metal briefly slipped below it on Friday, touching its lowest level since December 2025. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $56.85, up nearly 1.50% on the day.
EUR/USD edges lower on Monday after reversing earlier gains as markets swing between risk-on and risk-off sentiment. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1408, easing from an intraday high of 1.1449.
TD Securities strategists note that softer Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) is lifting USD/CAD as rate divergence remains a key driver. They argue broad US Dollar (USD) strength should limit USD/CAD downside below 1.40 and see higher Oil prices as CAD-supportive on crosses but not versus USD.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the ECB to leave rates at 2.25% this week after June’s 25 bps hike, maintaining a data-dependent stance without new projections.
Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Abbey Xu notes that Canadian inflation eased in June, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowing to 2.8% year-over-year and energy prices reversing part of their earlier surge.
TD Securities expects the Federal Reserve to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged through 2026, as inflation stays above target and the labor market stabilizes.
USD/CAD edges higher on Monday as softer-than-expected Canadian inflation data and a firmer US Dollar (USD) weigh on the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while tensions in the Middle East keep financial markets volatile. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.4045, up 0.17% on the day.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Australia’s June labor force report to show a modest 15k job gain and unemployment steady at 4.4%, slightly above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) projection.
HSBC strategists see NZD/USD supported by New Zealand’s strengthening growth data and an aggressive Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hiking path. The RBNZ has begun raising rates and HSBC Economics projects 25bp hikes per quarter to 3.50% by Q3 2027.
TD Securities’ Julie Ioffe expects United Kingdom (UK) headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to slow to 2.7% year-on-year in June, in line with consensus but below Bank of England (BoE) projections, as lower fuel prices offset sticky Services. Core CPI is seen at 2.6% and Services at 3.6%.
ING’s Chris Turner notes that deteriorating Gulf headlines and higher energy prices are keeping the Dollar supported, even if US Dollar Index (DXY) remains about 1% below its June peak.
Gold (XAU/USD) shows marginal gains on Monday, as the US Dollar recovery stalled and Oil prices pulled back from highs. The precious metal remains capped below a descending trendline resistance, but downside attempts remain supported above the $3,965 area, thus forming a descending triangle pattern
Cryptocurrency prices remain under pressure on Monday, as Bitcoin (BTC) falls toward $64,000. Altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP), uphold a weakening technical structure. ETH is trading sideways between support at $1,826 and resistance at $1,937.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Japan’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) to edge higher across headline and core measures, with core ex fresh food and energy steady at 1.8%.
BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that Euro (EUR) assets show emerging value as the European Central Bank (ECB) holds policy and inflation pressures ease, but stresses that Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data and earnings must confirm stable growth.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $56.83 per troy ounce, up 1.49% from the $56.00 it cost on Friday.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad looks for Canada June headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to slow to 2.9% year-on-year, with core measures near 2%.
The Euro (EUR) holds its early recovery move at around 1.1450 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday.
The British Pound (GBP) snaps a two-day correction against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday, rebounding to near 218.60 during the European trading session. The cross faced selling pressure in the past two trading days after profit-booking near multi-year highs at 219.61.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 100.75 in the early European trading hours on Monday.
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes that the Pound initially strengthened as markets welcomed Andy Burnham’s rapid move into 10 Downing Street and hopes for reduced political turmoil.
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a weak note against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR pair jumps to near 96.46 as a fresh surge in oil prices and the consistent outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market are hurting the Indian currency.
The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.1445 during the early European trading hours on Monday, bolstered by a hawkish tone from the European Central Bank (ECB).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – kicks off the new week on a positive note and touches a fresh high since June 12, around the $84.40-$84.45 region, during the Asian session.
The USD/CAD pair extends its downside to near 1.4005 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. Rising crude oil prices provide some support to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD).
The GBP/USD pair trades on a flat note around 1.3450 during the early Asian session on Monday. Traders continue to assess the developments surrounding US-Iran tensions after the US said that a third American troop was killed in the past two days.
The EUR/USD pair kicks off the new week on a softer note, though it lacks follow-through selling, warranting caution before positioning for an extension of the pullback from a nearly four-week high touched last Wednesday.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price opened at a bullish gap, trading around $83.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Monday.
Scotiabank’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note USD/JPY is little changed despite strong verbal intervention from Finance Minister Katayama, who warned of decisive action at any time. Markets remain unimpressed, given repeated rhetoric and limited impact from actual Yen buying.
United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count above forecasts (446): Actual (452)
AUD/USD trades higher near 0.6980 on Friday, recovering from an initial decline as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground following a mixed batch of United States (US) economic data.
USD/JPY trades flat on Friday, holding near four-decade highs as the Japanese Yen struggles to attract buyers amid persistent headwinds, including higher Oil prices, Japan’s wide interest-rate gap with other major economies and a resilient US Dollar (USD).
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said in a LinkedIn post on Friday that inflation pressure remains broad-based, with businesses calling for policy action and consumers expressing a growing sense of despair as they struggle to cover their expenses.
Scotiabank’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report EUR/USD trading slightly lower in quiet conditions as markets look ahead to next week’s ECB meeting, with policymakers in a blackout period and implied volatility subdued. They and consensus expect no policy change.
TD Securities’ Robert Both expects Canadian headline CPI to ease to 2.9% year-on-year in June, with a 0.2% monthly decline driven by sharply lower Energy prices.
Thu Lan Nguyen at Commerzbank notes that weaker United States (US inflation data briefly supported Gold, but the price has slipped back below USD 4,000 per troy ounce.
ING strategists Francesco Pesole and Frantisek Taborsky note that DXY-weighted short-term implied volatility has dropped to 2021 levels, despite geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve risks. Pesole argues that AI-driven equity resilience is anchoring currencies and supporting carry trades.
USD/CAD trades under pressure on Friday as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) benefits from higher Oil prices, offsetting the US Dollar’s (USD) recovery. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.4022, near a one-month low.
Commerzbank economists led by Dr. Marco Wagner and Dr. Jörg Krämer expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave rates unchanged in July but still deliver a further 25 bps hike in September.
The Euro (EUR) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) at around 1.1445 during the European trading session on Friday. The EUR/USD pair is expected to trade with caution amid continued military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran.
The Euro (EUR) trades higher against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, returning to levels near 0.8500 from 13-month lows of 0.8455 amid speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike rates in the coming months.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes EUR/USD is struggling for clear direction as the Iran conflict, Oil prices, and diverging inflation dynamics cloud the outlook.
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 0.8% to near $55.00 during the early European trading session on Friday. The white metal posted a fresh Year-To-Date (YTD) low at $54.77 earlier in the day.
GBP/USD extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 1.3460 during the Asian hours on Friday.
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) came under renewed selling pressure during the second half of the week after staging a modest recovery earlier in the week. BTC trades below $63,600 on Friday, while ETH slips below $1,860 after facing rejection at key resistance levels.
The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said that no oil or gas will be exported through the Strait of Hormuz as long as US attacks continue, Tasnim news agency reported on Friday.
Bitcoin (BTC) edges below $64,000 on Friday, extending losses for the third consecutive day after the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) capped recovery around $65,000. Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Celestia (TIA) stand out as the worst performers over the last 24 hours, with nearly 10% losses.
The AUD/USD pair remains on the back foot for the second straight day and slides to the 0.7980 region during the Asian session on Friday.
Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen over 34% in the first half of this year as the King Crypto failed to capitalize on a good semester for risk assets despite the woes from the Iran war.
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that the authorities are ready to act on currency moves whenever necessary.
NZD/USD inches higher after posting minor losses in the previous day, trading around 0.5840 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency pair remains stronger as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds its ground following the release of the country's latest food price data.
Strategy's Bitcoin (BTC) buying halt represents a shift away from relying solely on capital issuance toward a more active approach to liquidity management, according to a CryptoQuant report on Thursday.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said that the current policy stance should support the job market and allow inflation to resume decline toward 2% as tariff effects and energy prices pass through, Reuters reported on Thursday.
Ethereum (ETH) has outperformed the top 10 cryptocurrencies since the crypto market began a recovery last week. On a weekly timeframe, the top altcoin is seeing an 8% gain, compared to 2.4%, 1.4%, 1.6%, -1.8% and -3.5% for Bitcoin (BTC), BNB, XRP, Solana (SOL) and Hyperliquid (HYPE).
The Pound Sterling trims some of its Wednesday gains versus the US Dollar, dives by over 0.28% after solid US data and amid risk aversion, and augments the safe-haven appeal of the Greenback. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3502, after peaking near 1.3545.
AUD/USD trades slightly higher near the 0.7010 area on Thursday, extending its recent recovery as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to gain sustained momentum following mixed United States (US) economic data.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report USD/CAD is flat after the Bank of Canada (BoC) left policy unchanged and maintained a cautious tone on growth and inflation.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has entered a consolidation phase against the US Dollar (USD) following a volatile week.
EUR/USD trades with a downside bias on Thursday, snapping a two-day winning streak as the US Dollar (USD) steadies following recent losses driven by softer-than-expected United States (US) inflation data. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1457, down modestly on the day.
GBP/JPY trades with a mild negative bias on Thursday, taking a breather after climbing to its highest level since December 2007 the previous day, as the British Pound benefited from easing political uncertainty and expectations of greater fiscal discipline.
United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey above forecasts (13) in July: Actual (41.4)
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the US Dollar (USD) has steadied near a one‑month low after softer United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data weighed on Fed funds pricing.
Cryptocurrencies are broadly consolidating on Thursday, while Bitcoin (BTC) retreats toward support at $64,000. Ethereum (ETH) hovers below $1,800, with its upside seemingly limited, following a macro-driven rally.
TD Securities notes the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its policy rate at 2.25% and softened guidance by removing references to both rate-cut risks and consecutive hikes. Markets interpreted the statement as mildly dovish, but prior moves limited volatility.
Silver (XAG/USD) falls toward $56.70 at the time of writing on Thursday, down 1.85% on the day. The white metal comes under selling pressure as renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran drive energy prices higher, reviving concerns about persistently elevated global inflation.
Bitcoin (BTC) slips below $64,000 at the time of writing on Thursday after failing to close above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $65,120 the previous day.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades practically flat against a weaker US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as investors pare back bets of immediate Fed tightening, following unexpectedly soft US inflation figures earlier in the week.
Citing four Iraqi oil and security sources, Reuters reported on Thursday that a drone crashed into an oil tanker in Iraq's Basra terminal, although no damage or fire was caused.
Lee Hardman at MUFG highlights that the British Pound (GBP) has strengthened sharply, helped by reports that Shabana Mahmood is set to become the next UK chancellor, reinforcing expectations of “sound public finances” under Prime Minister in-waiting Andy Burnham.
EUR/CAD extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 1.6100 during the European hours on Thursday.
The USD/CHF pair struggles to capitalize on a modest intraday uptick on Wednesday and trades around the 0.8060 area during the early European session, just above the weekly low touched the previous day.
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that recent Canadian labour data and the Bank of Canada’s latest decision suggest domestic monetary policy is unlikely to reverse the downtrend in USD/CAD.
The Euro (EUR) edges higher on Thursday, with the US Dollar (USD) on its back foot, as recent US inflation figures triggered a significant repricing of near-term rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure as traders have repriced the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hike expectations. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto Wednesday’s losses near 100.48.
AUD/USD edges lower after two days of gains, trading around 0.7000 during the early European hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the pair is moving upwards within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting an emerging bullish bias.
The GBP/USD pair trades with mild losses around 1.3535 during the early European trading hours on Thursday.
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that the authorities are ready to take appropriate action on currency anytime as needed.
The USD/CAD pair is seen oscillating in a range during the Asian session on Thursday and consolidating its recent losses to a four-week low, touched the previous day.