GBPCAD Analysis

Introduction

The GBP/CAD pair is sensitive to both the UK’s economic performance and Canadian commodity exports. The Bank of England and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate policies drive this pair, and it can be volatile during periods of economic uncertainty, particularly in the UK and Canada’s oil market.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Bank of England policy is Dovish with the (BOE) current Interest rate 3.75%. Latest change was Dec 18, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Canada policy is Dovish and (BOC) has set its interest rate to 2.25% by latest change, Oct 29, 2025 (-25bp).
(BOE) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in GBP. This tends to attract foreign capital into GBP assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of GBP is Weak Bullish and for the CAD is Weak Bearish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for GBP is 9. and Fundamental Score for CAD is 3. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney & Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and British pound recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Australian dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -10% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -1% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.91% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -1.19%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.93%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -1.07% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -1.14% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.94%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

GBP COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >British Pound is -16162 included 87786 long, 103948 short and 5818 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold GBP for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 5818 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

CAD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Canadian Dollar is -16046 included 77169 long, 93215 short and 25739 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CAD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 25739 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the GBPCAD with 63% 37% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability GBPCAD prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The GBPCAD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 1.85803.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.87634. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.