GBPCAD Analysis

Introduction

The GBP/CAD pair is sensitive to both the UK’s economic performance and Canadian commodity exports. The Bank of England and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate policies drive this pair, and it can be volatile during periods of economic uncertainty, particularly in the UK and Canada’s oil market.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Bank of England policy is Dovish with the (BOE) current Interest rate 4.25%. Latest change was May 08, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Canada policy is Dovish and (BOC) has set its interest rate to 2.75% by latest change, Mar 12, 2025 (-25bp).
(BOE) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in GBP. This tends to attract foreign capital into GBP assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of GBP is -- Neutral and for the CAD is -- Neutral.
Ziwox considering Neutral bias for this asset and we predict side movement in the long-term. and Fundamental Score for CAD is -2. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Tokyo & London", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Yen and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the Australian dollar and United States Dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.16% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.11% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.02% up as of now
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.06%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.19% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.17% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.11%

Market Sentiment and Positioning

GBP COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >British Pound is 27216 included 89540 long, 62324 short and -2019 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought GBP for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -2019 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

CAD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Canadian Dollar is -82156 included 23250 long, 105406 short and -11511 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CAD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -11511 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the GBPCAD with 23% 77% ratio. 567 long pos and 1886 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability GBPCAD prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The GBPCAD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 1.84314.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.87062. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.