NZDJPY Analysis

Introduction

The NZD/JPY is another cross-currency pair that reflects both risk sentiment and global commodity prices. The New Zealand Dollar’s correlation with global commodity exports makes it sensitive to market cycles, while the Japanese Yen’s safe-haven status means it appreciates during risk-off periods. This pair moves in response to global risk appetite and economic data from New Zealand and Japan.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy is Dovish with the (RBNZ) current Interest rate 2.5%. Latest change was Oct 08, 2025 (-50bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 0.5% by latest change, Jan 24, 2025 (25bp).
(RBNZ) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in NZD. This tends to attract foreign capital into NZD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of NZD is -- Neutral and for the JPY is -- Neutral.
Ziwox considering Neutral bias for this asset and we predict side movement in the long-term.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for NZD is -4. and Fundamental Score for JPY is 9. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "New York", Market risk sentiment is Classic Risk-ON. The Gold and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the Yen and British pound are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 1.18% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.08% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.1% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.2%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.13%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.27% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.42% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.11%
Market risk sentiment is ON, This means Investors embrace risk, driving demand for riskier assets and higher-yielding currencies while safe-haven assets weaken.Due to the market risk sentiment, NZDJPY price increase is likely. Becasue investors are optimistic and willing to take higher risk on NZD and leading to increased demand for riskier assets like stocks, commodities, and higher-yielding currencies. Safe-haven assets like the USD, JPY, and gold typically weaken as confidence grows.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

NZD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Newseeland Dollar is -21120 included 12295 long, 33415 short and -3116 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold NZD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -3116 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is 79500 included 176400 long, 96900 short and 18089 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought JPY for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 18089 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the NZDJPY with 18% 82% ratio. 726 long pos and 1425 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability NZDJPY prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The NZDJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 86.224.
Technical trend is Sell, So If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a significant area to watch for potential reversal or consolidation.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 88.381. Technically, If the pair continues to the upside, this resistance level could become a significant area to watch for sell entery potential.