NZDJPY Analysis

Introduction

The NZD/JPY is another cross-currency pair that reflects both risk sentiment and global commodity prices. The New Zealand Dollar’s correlation with global commodity exports makes it sensitive to market cycles, while the Japanese Yen’s safe-haven status means it appreciates during risk-off periods. This pair moves in response to global risk appetite and economic data from New Zealand and Japan.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy is Dovish with the (RBNZ) current Interest rate 3.5%. Latest change was Apr 09, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 0.5% by latest change, Jan 24, 2025 (25bp).
(RBNZ) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in NZD. This tends to attract foreign capital into NZD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of NZD is Weak Bullish and for the JPY is Moderate Bullish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bearish bias for this asset and we expect prices to decline in the long-term.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for NZD is 4. and Fundamental Score for JPY is -3. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Tokyo & London", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Yen and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the Australian dollar and United States Dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.16% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.11% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.02% up as of now
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.06%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.19% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.17% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.11%

Market Sentiment and Positioning

NZD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Newseeland Dollar is -22612 included 10207 long, 32819 short and 523 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold NZD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 523 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is 172268 included 194226 long, 21958 short and -4591 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought JPY for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -4591 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the NZDJPY with 61% 39% ratio. 1629 long pos and 606 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability NZDJPY prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The NZDJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 85.183.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 86.519. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.