NZDJPY Analysis

Introduction

The NZD/JPY is another cross-currency pair that reflects both risk sentiment and global commodity prices. The New Zealand Dollar’s correlation with global commodity exports makes it sensitive to market cycles, while the Japanese Yen’s safe-haven status means it appreciates during risk-off periods. This pair moves in response to global risk appetite and economic data from New Zealand and Japan.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy is Dovish with the (RBNZ) current Interest rate 2.5%. Latest change was Oct 08, 2025 (-50bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 0.5% by latest change, Jan 24, 2025 (25bp).
(RBNZ) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in NZD. This tends to attract foreign capital into NZD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of NZD is -- Neutral and for the JPY is -- Neutral.
Ziwox considering Neutral bias for this asset and we predict side movement in the long-term.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for NZD is -3. and Fundamental Score for JPY is 9. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "New York", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and Yen recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and New Zealand Dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -1.17% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.38% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.23% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.36%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.43%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.13% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.26% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.27%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.Due to the market risk sentiment, NZDJPY price reduction is likely. Becasue investors become risk-averse from NZD, seeking safety amid uncertainty or market turmoil, leading to a sell-off in riskier assets and a flight to safe havens like the USD, JPY, and gold. Currencies tied to riskier economies (e.g., AUD, NZD) tend to weaken.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

NZD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Newseeland Dollar is -21120 included 12295 long, 33415 short and -3116 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold NZD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -3116 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is 79500 included 176400 long, 96900 short and 18089 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought JPY for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 18089 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the NZDJPY with 25% 75% ratio. 944 long pos and 1208 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability NZDJPY prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The NZDJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 87.648.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 89.158. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.