BTCUSD Analysis

Introduction

BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) Introduction BTC/USD represents the exchange rate between Bitcoin (BTC), the first and most well-known cryptocurrency, and the US Dollar (USD). As a decentralized digital asset, Bitcoin operates independently of traditional financial systems and is often seen as a store of value or a speculative asset. Its price tends to experience significant volatility, driven by a range of factors from technology developments to broader economic conditions. Important Points Bitcoin was created in 2009 by an anonymous entity known as Satoshi Nakamoto and is based on blockchain technology, offering decentralized and secure transactions. BTC/USD is the most traded cryptocurrency pair, and its price can fluctuate significantly due to market sentiment, adoption rates, and regulatory news. Bitcoin is considered a store of value, often likened to "digital gold," and its scarcity (capped at 21 million coins) plays a role in its price movements. Correlations Bitcoin is often correlated with investor risk appetite and broader market conditions. It tends to rise in value when there is higher risk-on sentiment, meaning investors are more willing to speculate on volatile assets. BTC/USD has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar, as Bitcoin often strengthens when the dollar weakens. Additionally, Bitcoin shows correlations with other cryptocurrencies, particularly Ethereum (ETH), with the broader crypto market following similar trends. Impact Parameters Key factors influencing the price of BTC/USD include: Market Sentiment: Bitcoin’s price is highly sensitive to investor sentiment, which can be influenced by market news, media coverage, and social media discussions. Regulatory News: The introduction of regulations or government policies that impact the use or legality of cryptocurrencies can cause significant price swings. Adoption Rates: Increased adoption of Bitcoin by institutions, such as companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, or countries legalizing Bitcoin as a payment method, can drive demand. Technological Developments: Upgrades or changes in Bitcoin's protocol, scalability improvements, or advancements in related blockchain technology can influence Bitcoin’s price. Macro-Economic Conditions: Economic factors such as inflation rates, currency devaluation, and geopolitical instability can lead to increased demand for Bitcoin as a store of value or hedge. Price Drivers Supply and Demand: The fixed supply of Bitcoin (21 million BTC) is a major driver of its price. As the supply remains constant while demand grows, the price tends to rise over time. Halving Events: Every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a "halving," where the rewards for mining new Bitcoin are cut in half. This event reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation, which can create scarcity and drive prices higher. Institutional Investment: Increased institutional involvement, such as major financial firms and hedge funds buying Bitcoin, can cause significant upward price movements. Public Perception and Media Influence: Bitcoin’s price is highly susceptible to public perception, especially in terms of media coverage and sentiment on social platforms like Twitter and Reddit. Global Economic Factors: As a digital currency, Bitcoin can serve as an alternative to traditional financial systems, making it more appealing during times of economic instability, currency devaluation, or inflation.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The policy is with the current Interest rate 0%. Latest change was 0%.
On that side the Federal Reserve policy is Dovish and (FED) has set its interest rate to 3.75% by latest change, Dec 10, 2025 (-25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of BTC is Weak Bullish and for the USD is Moderate Bullish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bearish bias for this asset and we expect prices to decline in the long-term. and Fundamental Score for USD is -3. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney & Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Classic Risk-ON. The Gold and Australian dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Yen and Switzerland Frank are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.34% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.01% up so far
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.24%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.07%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.12% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.03% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.05%
Market risk sentiment is ON, This means Investors embrace risk, driving demand for riskier assets and higher-yielding currencies while safe-haven assets weaken.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

BTC COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >BitCoin is 1302 included 15861 long, 14559 short and 291 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought BTC for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 291 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.

USD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is -5882 included 16384 long, 22266 short and -893 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold USD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -893 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the BTCUSD with 56% 44% ratio. 2822 long pos and 611 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability BTCUSD prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The BTCUSD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 69183.03.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 77840.18. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.