AUDCHF Analysis

Introduction

This minor pair is affected by global risk sentiment, commodity prices, and safe-haven demand. The Australian Dollar is influenced by commodity exports, while the Swiss Franc is a safe-haven currency. The pair’s movements are impacted by economic data from both Australia and Switzerland, and the pair may strengthen when investors seek higher yields in Australia and weaken during periods of market uncertainty when the CHF is favored.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Dovish with the (RBA) current Interest rate 3.6%. Latest change was Aug 12, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Swiss National Bank policy is Dovish and (SNB) has set its interest rate to 0% by latest change, Jun 19, 2025 (-25bp).
(RBA) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in AUD. This tends to attract foreign capital into AUD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of AUD is Weak Bullish and for the CHF is Moderate Bearish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for AUD is 1. and Fundamental Score for CHF is -1. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "London & New York", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and Yen recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Switzerland Frank are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.38% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.26% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.32% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.18%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.3%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.09% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.32% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.29%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.Due to the market risk sentiment, AUDCHF price reduction is likely. Becasue investors become risk-averse from AUD, seeking safety amid uncertainty or market turmoil, leading to a sell-off in riskier assets and a flight to safe havens like the USD, JPY, and gold. Currencies tied to riskier economies (e.g., AUD, NZD) tend to weaken.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is -59590 included 41994 long, 101584 short and -8430 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold AUD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -8430 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

CHF COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Swiss Franc is -23018 included 8227 long, 31245 short and 3022 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CHF for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 3022 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the AUDCHF with 47% 53% ratio. 1896 long pos and 2194 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability AUDCHF prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The AUDCHF pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 0.51924.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 0.53109. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.