AUDCHF Analysis

Introduction

This minor pair is affected by global risk sentiment, commodity prices, and safe-haven demand. The Australian Dollar is influenced by commodity exports, while the Swiss Franc is a safe-haven currency. The pair’s movements are impacted by economic data from both Australia and Switzerland, and the pair may strengthen when investors seek higher yields in Australia and weaken during periods of market uncertainty when the CHF is favored.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Dovish with the (RBA) current Interest rate 4.1%. Latest change was Feb 18, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Swiss National Bank policy is Dovish and (SNB) has set its interest rate to 0.25% by latest change, Mar 20, 2025 (-25bp).
(RBA) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in AUD. This tends to attract foreign capital into AUD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of AUD is Weak Bullish and for the CHF is Moderate Bearish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases. and Fundamental Score for CHF is 7. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "London", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Yen and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the Australian dollar and United States Dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.16% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.11% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.02% up as of now
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.06%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.19% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.17% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.11%

Market Sentiment and Positioning

AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is -49346 included 25507 long, 74853 short and -974 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold AUD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -974 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

CHF COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Swiss Franc is -23069 included 7443 long, 30512 short and 505 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CHF for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 505 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the AUDCHF with 59% 41% ratio. 3038 long pos and 1570 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability AUDCHF prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The AUDCHF pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 0.53189.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 0.54313. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.