AUDNZD Analysis

Introduction

The AUD/NZD represents the economic relationship between Australia and New Zealand. This pair is sensitive to both countries’ economic conditions, especially related to commodity exports, such as agricultural goods from New Zealand and minerals from Australia. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have a significant influence on the exchange rate through interest rate decisions. The pair is highly correlated with global risk sentiment and commodity prices. The AUD/NZD often moves in response to economic data from both countries, including GDP growth, inflation, and employment numbers, with the AUD typically stronger when global demand for commodities increases.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Dovish with the (RBA) current Interest rate 4.1%. Latest change was Feb 18, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy is Dovish and (RBNZ) has set its interest rate to 3.5% by latest change, Apr 09, 2025 (-25bp).
(RBA) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in AUD. This tends to attract foreign capital into AUD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of AUD is Weak Bullish and for the NZD is Weak Bullish.
Ziwox considering Neutral bias for this asset and we predict side movement in the long-term. and Fundamental Score for NZD is 4. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Tokyo & London", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Yen and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the Australian dollar and United States Dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.16% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.11% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.02% up as of now
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.06%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.19% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.17% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.11%

Market Sentiment and Positioning

AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is -49346 included 25507 long, 74853 short and -974 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold AUD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -974 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

NZD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Newseeland Dollar is -22612 included 10207 long, 32819 short and 523 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold NZD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 523 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the AUDNZD with 24% 76% ratio. 3259 long pos and 10026 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability AUDNZD prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The AUDNZD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 1.08481.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.09350. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.