-
- Interest Rate4.25
- Inflation Rate MoM0.3
- Inflation Expectations4.2
- Retail Sales MoM0.4
- GDP Growth Rate0.7
- GDP m/m0.2
- Manufacturing PMI45.4
- Services PMI 49
- Unemployment Rate4.5
-
- 0.25Interest Rate
- 0Inflation Rate MoM
- 1.02Inflation Expectations
- 0.6Retail Sales MoM
- 0.7GDP Growth Rate
- GDP m/m
- 45.8Manufacturing PMI
- 52.4Services PMI
- 2.8Unemployment Rate
Day Trading
Short Term/Scalp Opportunity
Waiting for confirmations
Swing Trading
Long Term Opportunity
Long at major support areas.
✅
Fundamental Bias is Bullish
✅
Forecast is Bullish
✅
Trend is Buy
Dynamic supports at S3 (1.10455) and S4 (1.10455) could be apropos entries
- 2025-05-18 06:31 UTCRISK-OFF: Investors become risk-averse, favoring safer assets during uncertain or negative market conditions
Risk-ON: Investors are willing to take risks, often seen during positive market sentiment. They may invest in higher-risk assets
MIX: Risky/Safe assets trades together
| R1: | S1: | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| R2: | S2: | ||
| R3: | S3: | ||
| R4: | S4: |
Daily:
H1:
M30:
M5:
Signal
Buy
Buy
Buy
Over Sold
waiting...
Pivot Points
Pivot: 1.11281
S1: 1.10901
S2: 1.10622
S3: 1.10242
R1: 1.11560
R2: 1.11940
R3: 1.12219
GBPCHF, Retail traders Sentiment
GBPCHF, Retails Liquidity history
>British Pound
Net Positions:
Previous 29,235
Current 27,216
Changes -2019 -7%>Swiss Franc
Net Positions:
Previous -23,574
Current -23,069
Changes +505 2%
Licensed User access
Base: GBP
Interest rate: 4.25%
U.K. 10Y Bonds: 4.639 , chg: -0.017 (-0.370%)
Fundamental Bias: Neutral --
Fundamental Score: 0
COT POS: GBP: 27216 pos, last change: -7% (-2019 contracts)
Retail Short pos ratio: 44%
Retail trader Sell position: 890
Retail trader Sell volume: 96.16 lots lot
Distance to Resistance R4 (1.12255): 0.00963
Quote: CHF
Interest rate: 0.25%
Bonds, Switzerland 10Y: 0.298 , chg: -0.085 (-22.190%)
Fundamental Bias: Bearish Moderate
Fundamental Score: 7
COT POS: CHF: -23069 pos, last change: 2% (505 contracts)
Retail Long pos ratio: 56%
Retail trader Long position: 1104
Retail trader Buy volume: 122.80 lots lot
Distance to Support S4 (1.10455): 0.00837
Forecast by Ziwox AI
Neutral
Bank of England (BOE) rate: 4.25%
Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: May 08, 2025 (-25bp)
Bearish Moderate
Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate: 0.25%
Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Mar 20, 2025 (-25bp)
Economic compare
-
- Interest Rate4.25
- CPI y/y2.6
- Inflation Rate MoM0.3
- Producer Prices Change0.3
- Core Inflation Rate MoM0.5
- Consumer Price Index CPI136
- Inflation Expectations4.2
- Retail Sales MoM0.4
- Core Producer Prices MoM0.3
- GDP Growth Rate0.7
- GDP m/m0.2
- Manufacturing PMI45.4
- Services PMI 49
- Non Manufacturing PMI
- Unemployment Rate4.5
- Employment Rate75
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Non Farm Payrolls0
- Average Hourly Earnings
- ADP Employment Change
- Balance of Trade0
- Consumer Confidence0
- Government Bond 10Y
- TOTAL SCORE1
-
- 0.25Interest Rate
- 0CPI y/y
- 0Inflation Rate MoM
- 0Producer Prices Change
- Core Inflation Rate MoM
- 108Consumer Price Index CPI
- 1.02Inflation Expectations
- 0.6Retail Sales MoM
- Core Producer Prices MoM
- 0.7GDP Growth Rate
- GDP m/m
- 45.8Manufacturing PMI
- 52.4Services PMI
- Non Manufacturing PMI
- 2.8Unemployment Rate
- 80.6Employment Rate
- Initial Jobless Claims
- 5534Non Farm Payrolls
- Average Hourly Earnings
- ADP Employment Change
- 5300Balance of Trade
- 0Consumer Confidence
- Government Bond 10Y
- 6TOTAL SCORE
According to economic data, the quote currency is outperforming the base currency due to stronger economic indicators, encouraging traders to sell the pair. This pessimism outlook, driven by the quote currency's strength versus the base currency's weakness, increases the likelihood of selling activity to profit from this divergence.
Bullish points
Bullish points
Bearish points
- Dovish Monetary Policy
Bearish points
- Dovish Monetary Policy
The British Pound (GBP), the official currency of the United Kingdom, is one of the oldest currencies still in use. The Pound is the fourth most traded currency globally, and its value is heavily influenced by the economic health of the UK. Important price drivers for GBP include the monetary policy of the Bank of England (BoE), inflation, unemployment rates, and political events, including those related to Brexit. The GBP is highly correlated with the EUR and USD, often moving in similar patterns in relation to global economic events. The pound tends to strengthen when the UK economy shows signs of growth and political stability, while it weakens amid uncertainty or economic downturns. The GBP's price is also impacted by trade relations, especially those involving the EU and major global partners.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is the official currency of Switzerland and is considered one of the safest currencies in the world. Due to Switzerland’s political stability, strong banking system, and solid economic foundation, the CHF is viewed as a safe-haven currency, often strengthening during periods of geopolitical instability or financial crisis. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is responsible for setting the country’s monetary policy. The price of the CHF is influenced by factors such as interest rates, inflation, and the country's trade balance. Additionally, the Franc tends to correlate with global risk sentiment, appreciating when investors seek safety in times of market turbulence. The CHF also sees price movements in relation to the Euro, given Switzerland's proximity to the Eurozone.
GBPCHF Analysis
Introduction
The GBP/CHF is impacted by both the Bank of England’s and the Swiss National Bank’s monetary policies. Political uncertainty in the UK, such as during Brexit negotiations, can lead to higher volatility. The Swiss Franc’s status as a safe haven makes this pair particularly responsive to global financial instability.
Fundamentals and Interest Rates
The Bank of England policy is Dovish with the (BOE) current Interest rate 4.25%. Latest change was May 08, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Swiss National Bank policy is Dovish and (SNB) has set its interest rate to 0.25% by latest change, Mar 20, 2025 (-25bp).
(BOE) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in GBP. This tends to attract foreign capital into GBP assets.
Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of GBP is -- Neutral and for the CHF is Moderate Bearish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases. and Fundamental Score for CHF is 7. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.
Market Overview & Performance
In the current trading session, "Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Yen and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the Australian dollar and United States Dollar are weakest so far.
Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.16% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.11% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.02% up as of now
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.06%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.19% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.17% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.11%
Market Sentiment and Positioning
GBP COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >British Pound is 27216 included 89540 long, 62324 short and -2019 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought GBP for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -2019 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.
CHF COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >Swiss Franc is -23069 included 7443 long, 30512 short and 505 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CHF for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 505 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.
Retail Traders:
Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the GBPCHF with 56% 44% ratio. 1104 long pos and 890 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability GBPCHF prices may decrease.
Technical Levels and Support/Resistance
The GBPCHF pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 1.10455.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.12255. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.
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Additionally, we do not offer financial or investment advice in this section of the website.
Before engaging in foreign currency trading, its important to carefully consider your own investment goals, experience level, and risk tolerance.
We want to emphasize that we cannot be held liable for any loss or damage, including potential profit loss, that may result from using or relying on this information. Your decisions are ultimately your own, and we encourage you to approach trading with caution and awareness.
