AUDCAD Analysis

Introduction

The AUD/CAD represents the relationship between two commodity-driven economies, Australia and Canada. This pair is heavily influenced by global commodity prices, especially energy (oil) and metals. Both Australia and Canada are major exporters of natural resources, with Australia focusing on metals and minerals and Canada being an oil exporter. Movements in the price of crude oil tend to have a significant impact on the CAD, while Australian export prices (iron ore, coal) affect the AUD. The monetary policies of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) also drive the pair, particularly interest rate decisions and inflation data.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Dovish with the (RBA) current Interest rate 4.1%. Latest change was Feb 18, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Canada policy is Dovish and (BOC) has set its interest rate to 2.75% by latest change, Mar 12, 2025 (-25bp).
(RBA) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in AUD. This tends to attract foreign capital into AUD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of AUD is Weak Bullish and for the CAD is -- Neutral.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases. and Fundamental Score for CAD is -2. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Yen and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the Australian dollar and United States Dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.16% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.11% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.02% up as of now
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.06%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.19% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.17% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.11%

Market Sentiment and Positioning

AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is -49346 included 25507 long, 74853 short and -974 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold AUD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -974 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

CAD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Canadian Dollar is -82156 included 23250 long, 105406 short and -11511 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CAD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -11511 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the AUDCAD with 29% 71% ratio. 7827 long pos and 18532 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability AUDCAD prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The AUDCAD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 0.88886.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 0.90504. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.