AUDCAD Analysis

Introduction

The AUD/CAD represents the relationship between two commodity-driven economies, Australia and Canada. This pair is heavily influenced by global commodity prices, especially energy (oil) and metals. Both Australia and Canada are major exporters of natural resources, with Australia focusing on metals and minerals and Canada being an oil exporter. Movements in the price of crude oil tend to have a significant impact on the CAD, while Australian export prices (iron ore, coal) affect the AUD. The monetary policies of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) also drive the pair, particularly interest rate decisions and inflation data.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Dovish with the (RBA) current Interest rate 3.6%. Latest change was Aug 12, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Canada policy is Dovish and (BOC) has set its interest rate to 2.25% by latest change, Oct 29, 2025 (-25bp).
(RBA) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in AUD. This tends to attract foreign capital into AUD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of AUD is Weak Bullish and for the CAD is Weak Bearish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for AUD is 1. and Fundamental Score for CAD is -2. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "London & New York", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and Yen recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Switzerland Frank are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.38% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.26% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.32% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.18%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.3%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.09% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.32% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.29%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is -59590 included 41994 long, 101584 short and -8430 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold AUD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -8430 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

CAD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Canadian Dollar is -114806 included 18035 long, 132841 short and -7629 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CAD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -7629 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the AUDCAD with 34% 66% ratio. 9559 long pos and 24637 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability AUDCAD prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The AUDCAD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 0.91066.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 0.92183. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.