-
- Interest Rate3.75
- Inflation Rate MoM0.9
- Inflation Expectations3.4
- Retail Sales MoM1.7
- GDP Growth Rate2
- GDP m/m
- Manufacturing PMI54
- Services PMI 51.3
- Unemployment Rate4.3
-
- 2.25Interest Rate
- 0.9Inflation Rate MoM
- 3.98Inflation Expectations
- 0.6Retail Sales MoM
- 0GDP Growth Rate
- 0GDP m/m
- 50Manufacturing PMI
- 47.2Services PMI
- 6.7Unemployment Rate
Day Trading
Short Term/Scalp Opportunity
Waiting for confirmations
Swing Trading
Long Term Opportunity
Waiting for confirmations
- 2026-05-01 06:46 UTCRISK-OFF: Investors become risk-averse, favoring safer assets during uncertain or negative market conditions
Risk-ON: Investors are willing to take risks, often seen during positive market sentiment. They may invest in higher-risk assets
MIX: Risky/Safe assets trades together
| R1: | S1: | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| R2: | S2: | ||
| R3: | S3: | ||
| R4: | S4: |
Daily:
H1:
M30:
M5:
Signal
Sell
Sell
Buy
Sell
waiting...
Pivot Points
Pivot: 1.36157
S1: 1.35429
S2: 1.35064
S3: 1.34336
R1: 1.36522
R2: 1.37250
R3: 1.37615
USDCAD, Retail traders Sentiment
USDCAD, Retails Liquidity history
>U.S. Dollar Index
Net Positions:
Previous 5,170
Current 4,983
Changes -187 -4%>Canadian Dollar
Net Positions:
Previous -78,272
Current -58,834
Changes +19438 25%
Licensed User access
Base: USD
Interest rate: 3.75%
U.S. 10Y Bonds: 4.391 , chg: 0.000 (0.000%)
Fundamental Bias: Bullish Moderate
Fundamental Score: 26
COT POS: USD: 4983 pos, last change: -4% (-187 contracts)
Retail Short pos ratio: 16%
Retail trader Sell position: 0
Retail trader Sell volume: 0 lot
Distance to Resistance R4 (1.36750): 0.0090
Quote: CAD
Interest rate: 2.25%
Bonds, Canada 10Y: 3.543 , chg: -0.066 (-1.830%)
Fundamental Bias: Bearish Weak
Fundamental Score: 7
COT POS: CAD: -58834 pos, last change: 25% (19438 contracts)
Retail Long pos ratio: 84%
Retail trader Long position: 0
Retail trader Buy volume: 0 lot
Distance to Support S4 (0): 1.3585
Forecast by Ziwox AI
Bullish Moderate
Federal Reserve (FED) rate: 3.75%
Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Dec 10, 2025 (-25bp)
Bearish Weak
Bank of Canada (BOC) rate: 2.25%
Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Oct 29, 2025 (-25bp)
Economic compare
-
- Interest Rate3.75
- CPI y/y3.3
- Inflation Rate MoM0.9
- Producer Prices Change4
- Core Inflation Rate MoM0.2
- Consumer Price Index CPI330
- Inflation Expectations3.4
- Retail Sales MoM1.7
- Core Producer Prices MoM0.1
- GDP Growth Rate2
- GDP m/m
- Manufacturing PMI54
- Services PMI 51.3
- Non Manufacturing PMI54
- Unemployment Rate4.3
- Employment Rate59.2
- Initial Jobless Claims189
- Non Farm Payrolls178
- Average Hourly Earnings0.2
- ADP Employment Change62
- Balance of Trade0
- Consumer Confidence49.8
- Government Bond 10Y
- TOTAL SCORE7
-
- 2.25Interest Rate
- 2.4CPI y/y
- 0.9Inflation Rate MoM
- 7.8Producer Prices Change
- 0.2Core Inflation Rate MoM
- 167Consumer Price Index CPI
- 3.98Inflation Expectations
- 0.6Retail Sales MoM
- Core Producer Prices MoM
- 0GDP Growth Rate
- 0GDP m/m
- 50Manufacturing PMI
- 47.2Services PMI
- Non Manufacturing PMI
- 6.7Unemployment Rate
- 60.6Employment Rate
- Initial Jobless Claims
- 18343Non Farm Payrolls
- 38.49Average Hourly Earnings
- ADP Employment Change
- 0Balance of Trade
- 49.4Consumer Confidence
- Government Bond 10Y
- 3TOTAL SCORE
According to economic data, the base currency is outperforming the quote currency due to stronger economic indicators, encouraging traders to buy the pair. This positive outlook, driven by the base currency's strength versus the quote currency's weakness, increases the likelihood of buying activity to profit from this divergence.
Bullish points
Bullish points
Bearish points
- Dovish Monetary Policy
Bearish points
- Dovish Monetary Policy
The US Dollar (USD) is the most widely traded currency in the world and the primary reserve currency. It is the official currency of the United States and is often seen as the global standard for trade and investment. The USD’s price is influenced by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, inflation levels, and interest rates. Its dominance in global trade makes it highly correlated with other major currencies, especially the Euro and Japanese Yen. Key impact parameters for the USD include US economic growth (GDP), job market conditions, consumer spending, and the Fed’s policy decisions. As a safe-haven currency, the USD often rises during periods of global risk aversion. Its price is also sensitive to geopolitical events, such as US government policy changes and international conflicts.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is the currency of Canada, and it is often referred to as the "Loonie" due to the loon bird depicted on the one-dollar coin. The CAD is heavily correlated with commodity prices, particularly oil, as Canada is one of the world’s largest oil exporters. The price of crude oil directly impacts the CAD’s value, making it a commodity-linked currency. The Bank of Canada (BoC) controls the monetary policy for the CAD. Other key price drivers for the CAD include interest rates, inflation data, and Canada’s trade balance. Economic growth in the US, as Canada’s primary trading partner, also affects the CAD, with stronger US demand often supporting a stronger Canadian Dollar. Fluctuations in global oil prices remain the most significant impact factor for the CAD.
USDCAD Analysis
Introduction
The USD/CAD pair is closely tied to the price of oil, as Canada is a major oil exporter. The price of crude oil often influences the CAD’s strength, with the Canadian Dollar typically appreciating when oil prices rise. The Bank of Canada (BoC) influences the currency through interest rate decisions and its economic outlook. Additionally, the USD/CAD is impacted by US economic performance and trade relations between the US and Canada.
Fundamentals and Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve policy is Dovish with the (FED) current Interest rate 3.75%. Latest change was Dec 10, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Canada policy is Dovish and (BOC) has set its interest rate to 2.25% by latest change, Oct 29, 2025 (-25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.
Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of USD is Moderate Bullish and for the CAD is Weak Bearish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for USD is 26. and Fundamental Score for CAD is 7. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.
Market Overview & Performance
In the current trading session, "Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The Yen and United States Dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and New Zealand Dollar are weakest so far.
Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.75% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.07% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.05% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.18%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.3%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.01% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.16% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.04%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.Due to the market risk sentiment, USDCAD price increase is likely. Becasue investors become risk-averse from CAD, seeking safety amid uncertainty or market turmoil, leading to a sell-off in riskier assets and a flight to safe havens like the USD, JPY, and gold. Currencies tied to riskier economies (e.g., AUD, NZD) tend to weaken.
Market Sentiment and Positioning
USD COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is 4983 included 17617 long, 12634 short and -187 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought USD for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -187 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.
CAD COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >Canadian Dollar is -58834 included 60889 long, 119723 short and 19438 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CAD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 19438 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.
Retail Traders:
Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the USDCAD with 84% 16% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability USDCAD prices may decrease.
Technical Levels and Support/Resistance
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.36750. Technically, If the pair continues to the upside, this resistance level could become a significant area to watch for sell entery potential.
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Before engaging in foreign currency trading, its important to carefully consider your own investment goals, experience level, and risk tolerance.
We want to emphasize that we cannot be held liable for any loss or damage, including potential profit loss, that may result from using or relying on this information. Your decisions are ultimately your own, and we encourage you to approach trading with caution and awareness.
