-
- Interest Rate4.25
- Inflation Rate MoM0.3
- Inflation Expectations4.2
- Retail Sales MoM0.4
- GDP Growth Rate0.7
- GDP m/m0.2
- Manufacturing PMI45.4
- Services PMI 49
- Unemployment Rate4.5
-
- 4.1Interest Rate
- 0.9Inflation Rate MoM
- 4.1Inflation Expectations
- 0.3Retail Sales MoM
- 0.6GDP Growth Rate
- GDP m/m
- 51.7Manufacturing PMI
- 51Services PMI
- 4.1Unemployment Rate
Day Trading
Short Term/Scalp Opportunity
Waiting for confirmations
Swing Trading
Long Term Opportunity
Short at major resistance areas
✅
Fundamental Bias is Bearish
✅
Forecast is Bearish
✅
Trend is SELL
Dynamic resistance at R3 (2.07852) and R4 (2.08236) could be apropos entries
- 2025-05-18 06:39 UTCRISK-OFF: Investors become risk-averse, favoring safer assets during uncertain or negative market conditions
Risk-ON: Investors are willing to take risks, often seen during positive market sentiment. They may invest in higher-risk assets
MIX: Risky/Safe assets trades together
| R1: | S1: | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| R2: | S2: | ||
| R3: | S3: | ||
| R4: | S4: |
Daily:
H1:
M30:
M5:
Signal
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Buy
waiting...
Pivot Points
Pivot: 2.07017
S1: 2.06235
S2: 2.04881
S3: 2.04099
R1: 2.08371
R2: 2.09153
R3: 2.10507
GBPAUD, Retail traders Sentiment
GBPAUD, Retails Liquidity history
>British Pound
Net Positions:
Previous 29,235
Current 27,216
Changes -2019 -7%>Australian Dollar
Net Positions:
Previous -48,372
Current -49,346
Changes -974 -2%
Licensed User access
Base: GBP
Interest rate: 4.25%
U.K. 10Y Bonds: 4.639 , chg: -0.017 (-0.370%)
Fundamental Bias: Neutral --
Fundamental Score: 0
COT POS: GBP: 27216 pos, last change: -7% (-2019 contracts)
Retail Short pos ratio: 84%
Retail trader Sell position: 1963
Retail trader Sell volume: 680.76 lots lot
Distance to Resistance R4 (2.08236): 0.00742
Quote: AUD
Interest rate: 4.1%
Bonds, Australia 10Y: 4.461 , chg: -0.079 (-1.740%)
China Bonds, China 10Y: 1.660 , chg: -0.010 (-1.740%)
Fundamental Bias: Bullish Weak
Fundamental Score: 0
COT POS: AUD: -49346 pos, last change: -2% (-974 contracts)
Retail Long pos ratio: 16%
Retail trader Long position: 690
Retail trader Buy volume: 134.17 lots lot
Distance to Support S4 (2.05599): 0.01895
Forecast by Ziwox AI
Neutral
Bank of England (BOE) rate: 4.25%
Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: May 08, 2025 (-25bp)
Bullish Weak
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate: 4.1%
Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Feb 18, 2025 (-25bp)
Economic compare
-
- Interest Rate4.25
- CPI y/y2.6
- Inflation Rate MoM0.3
- Producer Prices Change0.3
- Core Inflation Rate MoM0.5
- Consumer Price Index CPI136
- Inflation Expectations4.2
- Retail Sales MoM0.4
- Core Producer Prices MoM0.3
- GDP Growth Rate0.7
- GDP m/m0.2
- Manufacturing PMI45.4
- Services PMI 49
- Non Manufacturing PMI
- Unemployment Rate4.5
- Employment Rate75
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Non Farm Payrolls0
- Average Hourly Earnings
- ADP Employment Change
- Balance of Trade0
- Consumer Confidence0
- Government Bond 10Y
- TOTAL SCORE1
-
- 4.1Interest Rate
- 2.4CPI y/y
- 0.9Inflation Rate MoM
- 3.7Producer Prices Change
- Core Inflation Rate MoM
- 141Consumer Price Index CPI
- 4.1Inflation Expectations
- 0.3Retail Sales MoM
- Core Producer Prices MoM
- 0.6GDP Growth Rate
- GDP m/m
- 51.7Manufacturing PMI
- 51Services PMI
- Non Manufacturing PMI
- 4.1Unemployment Rate
- 64.4Employment Rate
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Non Farm Payrolls
- Average Hourly Earnings
- ADP Employment Change
- 6900Balance of Trade
- 92.1Consumer Confidence
- Government Bond 10Y
- 2TOTAL SCORE
According to economic data, the quote currency is outperforming the base currency due to stronger economic indicators, encouraging traders to sell the pair. This pessimism outlook, driven by the quote currency's strength versus the base currency's weakness, increases the likelihood of selling activity to profit from this divergence.
Bullish points
Bullish points
Bearish points
- Dovish Monetary Policy
Bearish points
- Dovish Monetary Policy
The British Pound (GBP), the official currency of the United Kingdom, is one of the oldest currencies still in use. The Pound is the fourth most traded currency globally, and its value is heavily influenced by the economic health of the UK. Important price drivers for GBP include the monetary policy of the Bank of England (BoE), inflation, unemployment rates, and political events, including those related to Brexit. The GBP is highly correlated with the EUR and USD, often moving in similar patterns in relation to global economic events. The pound tends to strengthen when the UK economy shows signs of growth and political stability, while it weakens amid uncertainty or economic downturns. The GBP's price is also impacted by trade relations, especially those involving the EU and major global partners.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is the official currency of Australia and is one of the top 10 most traded currencies in the forex market. The AUD is a commodity currency, closely tied to Australia’s exports, including coal, iron ore, and gold. Economic activity in China, a major trading partner, also strongly influences the AUD due to China’s demand for raw materials. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets the monetary policy for the AUD. Key drivers for the AUD include commodity prices, interest rates, inflation, and global risk sentiment. The AUD tends to appreciate when commodity prices rise and when investor appetite for riskier assets increases. It may weaken in periods of global financial uncertainty or when commodity demand wanes.
GBPAUD Analysis
Introduction
The GBP/AUD is influenced by UK economic data, especially as it relates to Brexit, and Australian economic performance, particularly in the commodity sector. The pair is also influenced by global risk sentiment, with the GBP typically strengthening when the UK economy performs well and the AUD benefiting from rising commodity prices.
Fundamentals and Interest Rates
The Bank of England policy is Dovish with the (BOE) current Interest rate 4.25%. Latest change was May 08, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Dovish and (RBA) has set its interest rate to 4.1% by latest change, Feb 18, 2025 (-25bp).
(BOE) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in GBP. This tends to attract foreign capital into GBP assets.
Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of GBP is -- Neutral and for the AUD is Weak Bullish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bearish bias for this asset and we expect prices to decline in the long-term.
Market Overview & Performance
In the current trading session, "Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Yen and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the Australian dollar and United States Dollar are weakest so far.
Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.16% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.11% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.02% up as of now
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.06%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.19% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.17% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.11%
Market Sentiment and Positioning
GBP COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >British Pound is 27216 included 89540 long, 62324 short and -2019 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought GBP for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -2019 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.
AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is -49346 included 25507 long, 74853 short and -974 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold AUD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -974 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.
Retail Traders:
Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the GBPAUD with 16% 84% ratio. 690 long pos and 1963 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability GBPAUD prices may continue to rise.
Technical Levels and Support/Resistance
The GBPAUD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 2.05599.
Technical trend is Sell, So If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a significant area to watch for potential reversal or consolidation.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 2.08236. Technically, If the pair continues to the upside, this resistance level could become a significant area to watch for sell entery potential.
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Additionally, we do not offer financial or investment advice in this section of the website.
Before engaging in foreign currency trading, its important to carefully consider your own investment goals, experience level, and risk tolerance.
We want to emphasize that we cannot be held liable for any loss or damage, including potential profit loss, that may result from using or relying on this information. Your decisions are ultimately your own, and we encourage you to approach trading with caution and awareness.
