NZDCHF Analysis

Introduction

The NZD/CHF pair reflects the economic dynamics between New Zealand and Switzerland. The NZD is driven by commodity exports, especially agricultural products, while the CHF is a safe-haven currency that tends to appreciate during times of global uncertainty. The price of the NZD/CHF is largely influenced by global risk sentiment, with the NZD rising when global commodity demand increases, and the CHF strengthening when markets are risk-averse. Economic data from New Zealand and Switzerland, as well as decisions from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), are key drivers.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy is Dovish with the (RBNZ) current Interest rate 3.5%. Latest change was Apr 09, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Swiss National Bank policy is Dovish and (SNB) has set its interest rate to 0.25% by latest change, Mar 20, 2025 (-25bp).
(RBNZ) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in NZD. This tends to attract foreign capital into NZD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of NZD is Weak Bullish and for the CHF is Moderate Bearish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for NZD is 4. and Fundamental Score for CHF is 7. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Tokyo & London", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Yen and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the Australian dollar and United States Dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.16% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.11% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.02% up as of now
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.06%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.19% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.17% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.11%

Market Sentiment and Positioning

NZD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Newseeland Dollar is -22612 included 10207 long, 32819 short and 523 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold NZD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 523 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

CHF COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Swiss Franc is -23069 included 7443 long, 30512 short and 505 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CHF for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 505 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the NZDCHF with 82% 18% ratio. 5340 long pos and 983 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability NZDCHF prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The NZDCHF pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 0.48564.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 0.49739. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.