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- Interest Rate2.25
- Inflation Rate MoM0.9
- Inflation Expectations2.53
- Retail Sales MoM0.9
- GDP Growth Rate0.2
- GDP m/m
- Manufacturing PMI50.5
- Services PMI 46
- Unemployment Rate5.3
-
- 0Interest Rate
- 0.3Inflation Rate MoM
- 0.69Inflation Expectations
- 0.1Retail Sales MoM
- 0.2GDP Growth Rate
- GDP m/m
- 54.5Manufacturing PMI
- 54.8Services PMI
- 3Unemployment Rate
Day Trading
Short Term/Scalp Opportunity
Waiting for confirmations
Swing Trading
Long Term Opportunity
Long at major support areas.
✅
Fundamental Bias is Bullish
✅
Forecast is Bullish
✅
Trend is Buy
Dynamic supports at S3 (0.45792) and S4 (0.45792) could be apropos entries
- 2026-05-17 02:48 UTCRISK-OFF: Investors become risk-averse, favoring safer assets during uncertain or negative market conditions
Risk-ON: Investors are willing to take risks, often seen during positive market sentiment. They may invest in higher-risk assets
MIX: Risky/Safe assets trades together
| R1: | S1: | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| R2: | S2: | ||
| R3: | S3: | ||
| R4: | S4: |
Daily:
H1:
M30:
M5:
Signal
Buy
Sell
Over Sold
Sell
waiting...
Pivot Points
Pivot: 0.46343
S1: 0.46244
S2: 0.46194
S3: 0.46095
R1: 0.46393
R2: 0.46492
R3: 0.46542
NZDCHF, Retail traders Sentiment
NZDCHF, Retails Liquidity history
>Newseeland Dollar
Net Positions:
Previous -48,251
Current -39,150
Changes +9101 19%>Swiss Franc
Net Positions:
Previous -34,521
Current -36,197
Changes -1676 -5%
Licensed User access
Base: NZD
Interest rate: 2.25%
New Zealand 10Y Bonds: 4.778 , chg: 0.020 (0.420%)
Fundamental Bias: Bearish Weak
Fundamental Score: 8
COT POS: NZD: -39150 pos, last change: 19% (9101 contracts)
Retail Short pos ratio: 5%
Retail trader Sell position: 0
Retail trader Sell volume: 0 lot
Distance to Resistance R4 (0.46460): 0.00465
Quote: CHF
Bonds, Switzerland 10Y: 0.504 , chg: 0.060 (13.510%)
Fundamental Bias: Bearish Strong
Fundamental Score: 1
COT POS: CHF: -36197 pos, last change: -5% (-1676 contracts)
Retail Long pos ratio: 95%
Retail trader Long position: 0
Retail trader Buy volume: 0 lot
Distance to Support S4 (0.45792): 0.00203
Forecast by Ziwox AI
Bearish Weak
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate: 2.25%
Monetary Policy: Hawkish Last change: Nov 26, 2025 (-25bp)
Bearish Strong
Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate: 0%
Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Jun 19, 2025 (-25bp)
Economic compare
-
- Interest Rate2.25
- CPI y/y3.1
- Inflation Rate MoM0.9
- Producer Prices Change3.5
- Core Inflation Rate MoM
- Consumer Price Index CPI1339
- Inflation Expectations2.53
- Retail Sales MoM0.9
- Core Producer Prices MoM
- GDP Growth Rate0.2
- GDP m/m
- Manufacturing PMI50.5
- Services PMI 46
- Non Manufacturing PMI
- Unemployment Rate5.3
- Employment Rate66.7
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Non Farm Payrolls
- Average Hourly Earnings
- ADP Employment Change
- Balance of Trade698
- Consumer Confidence94.7
- Government Bond 10Y
- TOTAL SCORE1
-
- 0Interest Rate
- 0.6CPI y/y
- 0.3Inflation Rate MoM
- 0Producer Prices Change
- Core Inflation Rate MoM
- 101Consumer Price Index CPI
- 0.69Inflation Expectations
- 0.1Retail Sales MoM
- Core Producer Prices MoM
- 0.2GDP Growth Rate
- GDP m/m
- 54.5Manufacturing PMI
- 54.8Services PMI
- Non Manufacturing PMI
- 3Unemployment Rate
- 80Employment Rate
- Initial Jobless Claims
- 5544Non Farm Payrolls
- Average Hourly Earnings
- ADP Employment Change
- 2743Balance of Trade
- 0Consumer Confidence
- Government Bond 10Y
- 7TOTAL SCORE
According to economic data, the quote currency is outperforming the base currency due to stronger economic indicators, encouraging traders to sell the pair. This pessimism outlook, driven by the quote currency's strength versus the base currency's weakness, increases the likelihood of selling activity to profit from this divergence.
Bullish points
- Hawkish Monetary Policy
Bullish points
Bearish points
Bearish points
- Dovish Monetary Policy
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), often called the "Kiwi," is the currency of New Zealand. Like the Australian Dollar, the NZD is a commodity currency, with a heavy reliance on exports such as dairy products, meat, and timber. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) manages the monetary policy of the NZD. Key price drivers include global demand for New Zealand’s agricultural exports, interest rates, inflation data, and risk sentiment. The NZD often correlates with the AUD, as both currencies are affected by similar economic factors, including commodity prices and developments in the Asia-Pacific region. The NZD typically strengthens during periods of global growth and demand for commodities, while it may fall during economic slowdowns or increased risk aversion.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is the official currency of Switzerland and is considered one of the safest currencies in the world. Due to Switzerland’s political stability, strong banking system, and solid economic foundation, the CHF is viewed as a safe-haven currency, often strengthening during periods of geopolitical instability or financial crisis. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is responsible for setting the country’s monetary policy. The price of the CHF is influenced by factors such as interest rates, inflation, and the country's trade balance. Additionally, the Franc tends to correlate with global risk sentiment, appreciating when investors seek safety in times of market turbulence. The CHF also sees price movements in relation to the Euro, given Switzerland's proximity to the Eurozone.
NZDCHF Analysis
Introduction
The NZD/CHF pair reflects the economic dynamics between New Zealand and Switzerland. The NZD is driven by commodity exports, especially agricultural products, while the CHF is a safe-haven currency that tends to appreciate during times of global uncertainty. The price of the NZD/CHF is largely influenced by global risk sentiment, with the NZD rising when global commodity demand increases, and the CHF strengthening when markets are risk-averse. Economic data from New Zealand and Switzerland, as well as decisions from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), are key drivers.
Fundamentals and Interest Rates
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy is Hawkish with the (RBNZ) current Interest rate 2.25%. Latest change was Nov 26, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Swiss National Bank policy is Dovish and (SNB) has set its interest rate to 0% by latest change, Jun 19, 2025 (-25bp).
(RBNZ) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in NZD. This tends to attract foreign capital into NZD assets.
Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of NZD is Weak Bearish and for the CHF is Strong Bearish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for NZD is 8. and Fundamental Score for CHF is 1. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.
Market Overview & Performance
In the current trading session, "Sydney & Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and Canadian Dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and New Zealand Dollar are weakest so far.
Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -2.35% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.28% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.47% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.93%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -1.09%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.23% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.31% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.16%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.Due to the market risk sentiment, NZDCHF price reduction is likely. Becasue investors become risk-averse from NZD, seeking safety amid uncertainty or market turmoil, leading to a sell-off in riskier assets and a flight to safe havens like the USD, JPY, and gold. Currencies tied to riskier economies (e.g., AUD, NZD) tend to weaken.
Market Sentiment and Positioning
NZD COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >Newseeland Dollar is -39150 included 11846 long, 50996 short and 9101 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold NZD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 9101 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.
CHF COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >Swiss Franc is -36197 included 5602 long, 41799 short and -1676 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CHF for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -1676 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.
Retail Traders:
Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the NZDCHF with 95% 5% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability NZDCHF prices may decrease.
Technical Levels and Support/Resistance
The NZDCHF pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 0.45792.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 0.46460. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.
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Before engaging in foreign currency trading, its important to carefully consider your own investment goals, experience level, and risk tolerance.
We want to emphasize that we cannot be held liable for any loss or damage, including potential profit loss, that may result from using or relying on this information. Your decisions are ultimately your own, and we encourage you to approach trading with caution and awareness.
