EURAUD Analysis

Introduction

The EUR/AUD reflects the economic conditions in both the Eurozone and Australia. The pair is influenced by commodity prices, as Australia is a major exporter of raw materials, and by European economic data. The EUR/AUD can show significant movements when there are shifts in risk sentiment or changes in the global commodity market.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.15%. Latest change was Jun 05, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Dovish and (RBA) has set its interest rate to 3.85% by latest change, May 20, 2025 (-25bp).
(RBA) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in AUD. This tends to attract foreign capital into AUD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Moderate Bullish and for the AUD is -- Neutral.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is -4. and Fundamental Score for AUD is 2. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "New York", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Australian dollar and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Yen are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -1% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.06% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.11% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.48%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.04%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.34% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.28% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.04%

Market Sentiment and Positioning

EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Euro is 107537 included 224979 long, 117442 short and -3598 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought EUR for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -3598 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is -70090 included 25539 long, 95629 short and 2472 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold AUD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 2472 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the EURAUD with 16% 84% ratio. 1312 long pos and 5007 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability EURAUD prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The EURAUD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 1.78657.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.81002. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.