EURAUD Analysis

Introduction

The EUR/AUD reflects the economic conditions in both the Eurozone and Australia. The pair is influenced by commodity prices, as Australia is a major exporter of raw materials, and by European economic data. The EUR/AUD can show significant movements when there are shifts in risk sentiment or changes in the global commodity market.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.15%. Latest change was Jun 05, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Dovish and (RBA) has set its interest rate to 3.6% by latest change, Aug 12, 2025 (-25bp).
(RBA) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in AUD. This tends to attract foreign capital into AUD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Weak Bullish and for the AUD is Weak Bullish.
Ziwox considering Neutral bias for this asset and we predict side movement in the long-term.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is 6. and Fundamental Score for AUD is 1. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "London & New York", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and Yen recorded the strongest performance, while the British pound and EUR are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.27% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.33% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.35% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.19%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.3%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.06% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.3% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.23%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Euro is 114345 included 252472 long, 138127 short and -3414 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought EUR for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -3414 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is -59590 included 41994 long, 101584 short and -8430 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold AUD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -8430 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the EURAUD with 55% 45% ratio. 3310 long pos and 2810 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability EURAUD prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The EURAUD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 1.75056.
Technical trend is Sell, So If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a significant area to watch for potential reversal or consolidation.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.78364. Technically, If the pair continues to the upside, this resistance level could become a significant area to watch for sell entery potential.