EURCAD Analysis

Introduction

This pair is impacted by the Eurozone’s economic data and the price of oil, as Canada is a major oil exporter. The EUR/CAD is often driven by shifts in global trade and energy market conditions. It can be volatile, particularly when there is a divergence in economic growth between the Eurozone and Canada.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.15%. Latest change was Jun 05, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Canada policy is Dovish and (BOC) has set its interest rate to 2.75% by latest change, Mar 12, 2025 (-25bp).
(BOC) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in CAD. This tends to attract foreign capital into CAD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Moderate Bullish and for the CAD is Weak Bearish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is -4. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "New York", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Australian dollar and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Yen are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -1.06% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.06% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.14% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.47%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.03%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.34% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.27% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.02%

Market Sentiment and Positioning

EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Euro is 107537 included 224979 long, 117442 short and -3598 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought EUR for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -3598 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

CAD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Canadian Dollar is -63452 included 22149 long, 85601 short and -10285 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CAD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -10285 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the EURCAD with 14% 86% ratio. 873 long pos and 4650 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability EURCAD prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The EURCAD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 1.58860.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.61411. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.