EURCAD Analysis

Introduction

This pair is impacted by the Eurozone’s economic data and the price of oil, as Canada is a major oil exporter. The EUR/CAD is often driven by shifts in global trade and energy market conditions. It can be volatile, particularly when there is a divergence in economic growth between the Eurozone and Canada.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.15%. Latest change was Jun 05, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Canada policy is Dovish and (BOC) has set its interest rate to 2.25% by latest change, Oct 29, 2025 (-25bp).
(BOC) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in CAD. This tends to attract foreign capital into CAD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Weak Bullish and for the CAD is Weak Bearish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is 4. and Fundamental Score for CAD is -2. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "London & New York", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and Yen recorded the strongest performance, while the British pound and EUR are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.27% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.33% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.35% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.19%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.3%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.06% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.3% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.23%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Euro is 114345 included 252472 long, 138127 short and -3414 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought EUR for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -3414 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

CAD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Canadian Dollar is -114806 included 18035 long, 132841 short and -7629 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CAD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -7629 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the EURCAD with 55% 45% ratio. 3243 long pos and 2835 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability EURCAD prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The EURCAD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 1.60866.
Technical trend is Sell, So If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a significant area to watch for potential reversal or consolidation.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.62869. Technically, If the pair continues to the upside, this resistance level could become a significant area to watch for sell entery potential.