WTI Analysis

Introduction

WTI is one of the most widely traded oil benchmarks and represents crude oil extracted from the United States. It is influenced by global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and production levels, particularly in major oil-producing countries like the US, OPEC members, and Russia. WTI prices are significantly impacted by US inventory data (particularly the weekly reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration), OPEC production cuts or increases, and natural disasters that affect oil infrastructure. WTI is also closely correlated with the US Dollar; when the dollar strengthens, oil becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can lead to a decline in prices.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The policy is with the current Interest rate 0%. Latest change was 0%.
On that side the Federal Reserve policy is Dovish and (FED) has set its interest rate to 3.75% by latest change, Dec 10, 2025 (-25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of WTI is -- Neutral and for the USD is -- Neutral.
Ziwox considering Neutral bias for this asset and we predict side movement in the long-term. and Fundamental Score for USD is 10. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney & Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and British pound recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Australian dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -10% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -1% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.91% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -1.19%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.93%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -1.07% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -1.14% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.94%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

WTI COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Crude Oil WTI is 96982 included 295247 long, 198265 short and 18190 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought WTI for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 18190 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.

USD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is -4405 included 17945 long, 22350 short and 2013 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold USD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 2013 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

Retail Traders:

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The WTI pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 63.105.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 66.205. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.