WTI Analysis

Introduction

WTI is one of the most widely traded oil benchmarks and represents crude oil extracted from the United States. It is influenced by global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and production levels, particularly in major oil-producing countries like the US, OPEC members, and Russia. WTI prices are significantly impacted by US inventory data (particularly the weekly reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration), OPEC production cuts or increases, and natural disasters that affect oil infrastructure. WTI is also closely correlated with the US Dollar; when the dollar strengthens, oil becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can lead to a decline in prices.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The policy is with the current Interest rate 0%. Latest change was 0%.
On that side the Federal Reserve policy is Dovish and (FED) has set its interest rate to 3.75% by latest change, Dec 10, 2025 (-25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of WTI is Weak Bullish and for the USD is Moderate Bullish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bearish bias for this asset and we expect prices to decline in the long-term. and Fundamental Score for USD is -3. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney & Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Classic Risk-ON. The Gold and Australian dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Yen and Switzerland Frank are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.34% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.01% up so far
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.24%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.07%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.12% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.03% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.05%
Market risk sentiment is ON, This means Investors embrace risk, driving demand for riskier assets and higher-yielding currencies while safe-haven assets weaken.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

WTI COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Crude Oil WTI is 228015 included 394651 long, 166636 short and 55865 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought WTI for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 55865 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.

USD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is -5882 included 16384 long, 22266 short and -893 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold USD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -893 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

Retail Traders:

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The WTI pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 76.100.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 115.669. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.