EURNZD Analysis

Introduction

The EUR/NZD is a cross-currency pair between the Eurozone and New Zealand. It is influenced by the economic conditions in both regions, including the European Central Bank (ECB)’s monetary policy and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy stance. The price of this pair is highly affected by risk sentiment, commodity prices (particularly dairy and agricultural goods for New Zealand), and global trade dynamics. The EUR/NZD tends to appreciate when European economic data is stronger or when global market conditions favor the Euro. On the other hand, the NZD strengthens when global demand for commodities rises, and when the RBNZ maintains a dovish stance, the NZD weakens.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.15%. Latest change was Jun 05, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy is Dovish and (RBNZ) has set its interest rate to 2.25% by latest change, Nov 26, 2025 (-25bp).
(RBNZ) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in NZD. This tends to attract foreign capital into NZD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Weak Bullish and for the NZD is -- Neutral.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is 6. and Fundamental Score for NZD is 9. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney & Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and British pound recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Australian dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -10% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -1% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.91% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -1.19%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.93%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -1.07% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -1.14% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.94%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Euro is 132134 included 290336 long, 158202 short and 20439 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought EUR for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 20439 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.

NZD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Newseeland Dollar is -47745 included 12074 long, 59819 short and 1865 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold NZD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 1865 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the EURNZD with 27% 73% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability EURNZD prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The EURNZD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 1.95731.
Technical trend is Sell, So If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a significant area to watch for potential reversal or consolidation.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.98688. Technically, If the pair continues to the upside, this resistance level could become a significant area to watch for sell entery potential.