EURNZD Analysis

Introduction

The EUR/NZD is a cross-currency pair between the Eurozone and New Zealand. It is influenced by the economic conditions in both regions, including the European Central Bank (ECB)’s monetary policy and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy stance. The price of this pair is highly affected by risk sentiment, commodity prices (particularly dairy and agricultural goods for New Zealand), and global trade dynamics. The EUR/NZD tends to appreciate when European economic data is stronger or when global market conditions favor the Euro. On the other hand, the NZD strengthens when global demand for commodities rises, and when the RBNZ maintains a dovish stance, the NZD weakens.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.65%. Latest change was Mar 06, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy is Dovish and (RBNZ) has set its interest rate to 3.75% by latest change, Feb 19, 2025 (-50bp).
(RBNZ) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in NZD. This tends to attract foreign capital into NZD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Moderate Bearish and for the NZD is Weak Bearish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bearish bias for this asset and we expect prices to decline in the long-term.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is -1. and Fundamental Score for NZD is -3. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "London & New York", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The Gold and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the Australian dollar and Yen are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.89% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.1% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.13% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.47%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.24%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.35% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.11% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.02%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Euro is 13090 included 188647 long, 175557 short and 23196 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought EUR for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 23196 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.

NZD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Newseeland Dollar is -52931 included 16282 long, 69213 short and 2834 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold NZD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 2834 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the EURNZD with 37% 63% ratio. 1082 long pos and 3327 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability EURNZD prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The EURNZD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 1.86790.
Technical trend is Sell, So If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a significant area to watch for potential reversal or consolidation.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.90012. Technically, If the pair continues to the upside, this resistance level could become a significant area to watch for sell entery potential.