NZDCAD Analysis

Introduction

The NZD/CAD represents the relationship between two commodity-driven economies. Both New Zealand and Canada rely heavily on natural resources, with New Zealand focusing on agricultural exports and Canada being an oil exporter. The price of this pair is heavily influenced by global commodity prices, particularly oil for the CAD and dairy for the NZD. Both countries’ central banks, the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), impact the pair through interest rate decisions. The NZD tends to strengthen when global demand for agricultural commodities rises, while the CAD rises with higher oil prices.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy is Dovish with the (RBNZ) current Interest rate 2.5%. Latest change was Oct 08, 2025 (-50bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Canada policy is Dovish and (BOC) has set its interest rate to 2.25% by latest change, Oct 29, 2025 (-25bp).
(RBNZ) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in NZD. This tends to attract foreign capital into NZD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of NZD is -- Neutral and for the CAD is Weak Bearish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for NZD is -3. and Fundamental Score for CAD is -2. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "London & New York", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and Yen recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Switzerland Frank are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.38% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.26% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.32% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.18%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.3%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.09% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.32% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.29%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

NZD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Newseeland Dollar is -21120 included 12295 long, 33415 short and -3116 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold NZD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -3116 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

CAD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Canadian Dollar is -114806 included 18035 long, 132841 short and -7629 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CAD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -7629 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the NZDCAD with 90% 10% ratio. 6014 long pos and 1790 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability NZDCAD prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The NZDCAD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 0.79882.
Technical trend is Sell, So If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a significant area to watch for potential reversal or consolidation.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 0.80576. Technically, If the pair continues to the upside, this resistance level could become a significant area to watch for sell entery potential.