NZDCAD Analysis

Introduction

The NZD/CAD represents the relationship between two commodity-driven economies. Both New Zealand and Canada rely heavily on natural resources, with New Zealand focusing on agricultural exports and Canada being an oil exporter. The price of this pair is heavily influenced by global commodity prices, particularly oil for the CAD and dairy for the NZD. Both countries’ central banks, the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), impact the pair through interest rate decisions. The NZD tends to strengthen when global demand for agricultural commodities rises, while the CAD rises with higher oil prices.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy is Dovish with the (RBNZ) current Interest rate 3.5%. Latest change was Apr 09, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Canada policy is Dovish and (BOC) has set its interest rate to 2.75% by latest change, Mar 12, 2025 (-25bp).
(RBNZ) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in NZD. This tends to attract foreign capital into NZD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of NZD is Weak Bullish and for the CAD is -- Neutral.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for NZD is 4. and Fundamental Score for CAD is -2. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Tokyo & London", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Yen and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the Australian dollar and United States Dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.16% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.11% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.02% up as of now
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.06%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.19% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.17% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.11%

Market Sentiment and Positioning

NZD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Newseeland Dollar is -22612 included 10207 long, 32819 short and 523 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold NZD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 523 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

CAD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Canadian Dollar is -82156 included 23250 long, 105406 short and -11511 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CAD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -11511 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the NZDCAD with 28% 72% ratio. 3470 long pos and 5213 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability NZDCAD prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The NZDCAD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 0.81528.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 0.82891. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.