EURUSD Analysis

Introduction

The EUR/USD is the most traded currency pair in the world. It represents the relationship between the Euro and the US Dollar. The price of this pair is heavily influenced by interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), as well as economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment, and inflation in the Eurozone and the US. Key correlations include its inverse relationship with commodity prices, especially crude oil, and its sensitivity to global risk sentiment. The EUR/USD often acts as a benchmark for other currency pairs.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.15%. Latest change was Jun 05, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Federal Reserve policy is Dovish and (FED) has set its interest rate to 3.75% by latest change, Dec 10, 2025 (-25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Weak Bullish and for the USD is Moderate Bullish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bearish bias for this asset and we expect prices to decline in the long-term.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is 1. and Fundamental Score for USD is 13. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney & Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the New Zealand Dollar and Australian dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.28% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.11% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.12% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.38%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.53%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.05% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.04% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.05%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Euro is 41324 included 217407 long, 176083 short and 15306 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought EUR for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 15306 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.

USD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is 4983 included 17617 long, 12634 short and -187 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought USD for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -187 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the EURUSD with 52% 48% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability EURUSD prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The EURUSD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 1.16275.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.17759. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.