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  • Interest Rate2.15
  • Inflation Rate MoM0.3
  • Inflation Expectations2.8
  • Retail Sales MoM0
  • GDP Growth Rate0.6
  • GDP m/m
  • Manufacturing PMI49.5
  • Services PMI 50.5
  • Unemployment Rate6.3
  • 4.5Interest Rate
  • 0.1Inflation Rate MoM
  • 3Inflation Expectations
  • 0Retail Sales MoM
  • 0GDP Growth Rate
  • GDP m/m
  • 52.9Manufacturing PMI
  • 52.9Services PMI
  • 4.1Unemployment Rate

Day Trading

Short Term/Scalp Opportunity

Waiting for confirmations

Swing Trading

Long Term Opportunity


Long at major support areas.
✅ Fundamental Bias is Bullish  
✅ Forecast is side  
✅ Trend is Buy
Dynamic supports at S3 (1.16439) and S4 (1.16439) could be apropos entries

Market Risk Sentiment
ADS
ADS
Intraday performance
Last update: 2025-07-08 21:38
Intraday performance - Session history
Last update: 2025-07-08 21:38
Technical Data:
R1: S1:
R2: S2:
R3: S3:
R4: S4:

Daily:

H1:

M30:

M5:

Signal

Buy

Sell

Neutral

Sell

waiting...

0 %
Pivot Points

Pivot: 1.17222

S1: 1.16796

S2: 1.16395

S3: 1.15969

R1: 1.17623

R2: 1.18049

R3: 1.18450

Retail traders Money flow: Last update: 2025-07-08 21:30

EURUSD, Retail traders Sentiment

EURUSD, Retails Liquidity history

Commitments of Traders (COT): latest CFTC report: 2025-07-01

>Euro

Net Positions:

Previous 111,135

Current 107,537

Changes -3598 -3%

>U.S. Dollar Index

Net Positions:

Previous -6,034

Current -4,282

Changes +1752 29%
NET Change History EUR
NET Change History USD
Large Speculators vs price history (Hot money Tracking)
AI forecast
Forecast:

Licensed User access

0%
0%
Base: EUR

Interest rate: 2.15%

Germany 10Y Bonds: 2.642 , chg: 0.037 (1.400%)

Italy Bonds, Italy 10: 3.561 , chg: 0.044 (1.400%)

 

Fundamental Bias: Bullish Moderate

Fundamental Score: -4

COT POS: EUR: 107537 pos, last change: -3% (-3598 contracts)

Retail Short pos ratio: 69%

Retail trader Sell position: 38698

Retail trader Sell volume: 11155.99 lots lot

Distance to Resistance R4 (1.18032): 0.00781

Quote: USD

Interest rate: 4.5%

Bonds, U.S. 10Y: 4.401 , chg: 0.006 (0.140%)

 

 

Fundamental Bias: Bearish Moderate

Fundamental Score: 1

COT POS: USD: -4282 pos, last change: 29% (1752 contracts)

Retail Long pos ratio: 31%

Retail trader Long position: 19609

Retail trader Buy volume: 5120.76 lots lot

Distance to Support S4 (1.16439): 0.00812

Fundamental Bias:

Bullish Moderate

European Central Bank (ECB) rate: 2.15%

Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Jun 05, 2025 (-25bp)


Bearish Moderate

Federal Reserve (FED) rate: 4.5%

Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Dec 18, 2024 (-25bp)

EUR Calendar
USD Calendar

Economic compare

  • Interest Rate2.15
  • CPI y/y2
  • Inflation Rate MoM0.3
  • Producer Prices Change0.3
  • Core Inflation Rate MoM0
  • Consumer Price Index CPI129
  • Inflation Expectations2.8
  • Retail Sales MoM0
  • Core Producer Prices MoM
  • GDP Growth Rate0.6
  • GDP m/m
  • Manufacturing PMI49.5
  • Services PMI 50.5
  • Non Manufacturing PMI
  • Unemployment Rate6.3
  • Employment Rate70.4
  • Initial Jobless Claims
  • Non Farm Payrolls
  • Average Hourly Earnings
  • ADP Employment Change
  • Balance of Trade9910
  • Consumer Confidence0
  • Government Bond 10Y
  • TOTAL SCORE-2
  • 4.5Interest Rate
  • 2.4CPI y/y
  • 0.1Inflation Rate MoM
  • 2.6Producer Prices Change
  • 0.1Core Inflation Rate MoM
  • 321Consumer Price Index CPI
  • 3Inflation Expectations
  • 0Retail Sales MoM
  • 0.1Core Producer Prices MoM
  • 0GDP Growth Rate
  • GDP m/m
  • 52.9Manufacturing PMI
  • 52.9Services PMI
  • 50.8Non Manufacturing PMI
  • 4.1Unemployment Rate
  • 59.7Employment Rate
  • 233Initial Jobless Claims
  • 147Non Farm Payrolls
  • 0.2Average Hourly Earnings
  • 0ADP Employment Change
  • 0Balance of Trade
  • 60.7Consumer Confidence
  • Government Bond 10Y
  • 4TOTAL SCORE
EURUSD:

According to economic data, the quote currency is outperforming the base currency due to stronger economic indicators, encouraging traders to sell the pair. This pessimism outlook, driven by the quote currency's strength versus the base currency's weakness, increases the likelihood of selling activity to profit from this divergence.

Bullish points

Bullish points

Bearish points

  • Dovish Monetary Policy

Bearish points

  • Dovish Monetary Policy
News
Euro (EUR)

The Euro (EUR) is the official currency of the Eurozone, consisting of 19 of the 27 European Union (EU) member countries. It is the second most traded currency in the world and serves as a symbol of European economic integration. The Euro was introduced in 1999, and its value is influenced by the economic stability of the Eurozone. Key points include its central role in global trade and finance, with the European Central Bank (ECB) being responsible for its monetary policy. The Euro often shows strong correlations with the USD and commodity prices due to the economic dynamics of Europe and the global trade market. The Euro’s price is driven by factors such as GDP growth, inflation rates, political stability within the EU, and interest rates set by the ECB. In times of geopolitical instability, the Euro may weaken, while a stable economic outlook in the Eurozone can lead to strengthening.

United States Dollar

The US Dollar (USD) is the most widely traded currency in the world and the primary reserve currency. It is the official currency of the United States and is often seen as the global standard for trade and investment. The USD’s price is influenced by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, inflation levels, and interest rates. Its dominance in global trade makes it highly correlated with other major currencies, especially the Euro and Japanese Yen. Key impact parameters for the USD include US economic growth (GDP), job market conditions, consumer spending, and the Fed’s policy decisions. As a safe-haven currency, the USD often rises during periods of global risk aversion. Its price is also sensitive to geopolitical events, such as US government policy changes and international conflicts.

EURUSD Analysis EURUSD Analysis

Introduction

The EUR/USD is the most traded currency pair in the world. It represents the relationship between the Euro and the US Dollar. The price of this pair is heavily influenced by interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), as well as economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment, and inflation in the Eurozone and the US. Key correlations include its inverse relationship with commodity prices, especially crude oil, and its sensitivity to global risk sentiment. The EUR/USD often acts as a benchmark for other currency pairs.


Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.15%. Latest change was Jun 05, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Federal Reserve policy is Dovish and (FED) has set its interest rate to 4.5% by latest change, Dec 18, 2024 (-25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Moderate Bullish and for the USD is Moderate Bearish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is -4. and Fundamental Score for USD is 1. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Canadian Dollar and Yen recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Switzerland Frank are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.03% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.01% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.01% down as of now
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.03%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.04% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.02% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.08%


Market Sentiment and Positioning

EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Euro is 107537 included 224979 long, 117442 short and -3598 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought EUR for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -3598 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.


USD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is -4282 included 16873 long, 21155 short and 1752 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold USD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 1752 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.


Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the EURUSD with 31% 69% ratio. 19609 long pos and 38698 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability EURUSD prices may continue to rise.


Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The EURUSD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 1.16439.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.18032. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.

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Risk Disclaimer
  Please note that trade offers are intended solely for educational purposes

Our forecasts, signals, and trade opportunities are provided to help you stay informed, but we do not take responsibility for any potential losses.
Additionally, we do not offer financial or investment advice in this section of the website.

Before engaging in foreign currency trading, its important to carefully consider your own investment goals, experience level, and risk tolerance.
We want to emphasize that we cannot be held liable for any loss or damage, including potential profit loss, that may result from using or relying on this information. Your decisions are ultimately your own, and we encourage you to approach trading with caution and awareness.

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