-
- Interest Rate3.75
- Inflation Rate MoM0.3
- Inflation Expectations3.2
- Retail Sales MoM0.2
- GDP Growth Rate3.8
- GDP m/m
- Manufacturing PMI52.2
- Services PMI 54.1
- Unemployment Rate4.4
-
- 3Interest Rate
- 0Inflation Rate MoM
- Inflation Expectations
- 0.16Retail Sales MoM
- 1.1GDP Growth Rate
- GDP m/m
- 49.9Manufacturing PMI
- 52.1Services PMI
- 5.1Unemployment Rate
Day Trading
Short Term/Scalp Opportunity
Waiting for confirmations
Swing Trading
Long Term Opportunity
Waiting for confirmations
- 2025-12-16 10:41 UTCRISK-OFF: Investors become risk-averse, favoring safer assets during uncertain or negative market conditions
Risk-ON: Investors are willing to take risks, often seen during positive market sentiment. They may invest in higher-risk assets
MIX: Risky/Safe assets trades together
| R1: | S1: | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| R2: | S2: | ||
| R3: | S3: | ||
| R4: | S4: |
Daily:
H1:
M30:
M5:
Signal
waiting...
Pivot Points
Pivot:
S1:
S2:
S3:
R1:
R2:
R3:
USDCNY, Retail traders Sentiment
USDCNY, Retails Liquidity history
>U.S. Dollar Index
Net Positions:
Previous -16,108
Current -16,347
Changes -239 -1%Net Positions:
Previous 0
Current 0
Changes + %
Licensed User access
Base: USD
Interest rate: 3.75%
U.S. 10Y Bonds: 4.175 , chg: -0.006 (-0.140%)
Fundamental Bias: Neutral --
Fundamental Score: -11
COT POS: USD: -16347 pos, last change: -1% (-239 contracts)
Retail Short pos ratio: %
Retail trader Sell position:
Retail trader Sell volume: lot
Distance to Resistance R4 (): 0
Quote: CNY
Interest rate: 3%
Bonds, China 10Y: 1.846 , chg: 0.051 (2.840%)
Fundamental Bias: 0 0
Fundamental Score: 0
Retail Long pos ratio: %
Retail trader Long position:
Retail trader Buy volume: lot
Distance to Support S4 (): 0
Forecast by Ziwox AI
Neutral
Federal Reserve (FED) rate: 3.75%
Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Dec 10, 2025 (-25bp)
Bullish
People's Bank of China (PBOC) rate: 3%
Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: May 20, 2025 (-10bp)
Economic compare
-
- Interest Rate3.75
- CPI y/y3
- Inflation Rate MoM0.3
- Producer Prices Change2.7
- Core Inflation Rate MoM0.2
- Consumer Price Index CPI325
- Inflation Expectations3.2
- Retail Sales MoM0.2
- Core Producer Prices MoM0.1
- GDP Growth Rate3.8
- GDP m/m
- Manufacturing PMI52.2
- Services PMI 54.1
- Non Manufacturing PMI52.6
- Unemployment Rate4.4
- Employment Rate59.7
- Initial Jobless Claims236
- Non Farm Payrolls119
- Average Hourly Earnings0.2
- ADP Employment Change0
- Balance of Trade0
- Consumer Confidence53.3
- Government Bond 10Y
- TOTAL SCORE-1
-
- 3Interest Rate
- 0.7CPI y/y
- 0Inflation Rate MoM
- 0Producer Prices Change
- 0Core Inflation Rate MoM
- 104Consumer Price Index CPI
- Inflation Expectations
- 0.16Retail Sales MoM
- Core Producer Prices MoM
- 1.1GDP Growth Rate
- GDP m/m
- 49.9Manufacturing PMI
- 52.1Services PMI
- 49.5Non Manufacturing PMI
- 5.1Unemployment Rate
- Employment Rate
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Non Farm Payrolls
- Average Hourly Earnings
- ADP Employment Change
- 112Balance of Trade
- 89.6Consumer Confidence
- Government Bond 10Y
- 1TOTAL SCORE
According to economic data, the quote currency is outperforming the base currency due to stronger economic indicators, encouraging traders to sell the pair. This pessimism outlook, driven by the quote currency's strength versus the base currency's weakness, increases the likelihood of selling activity to profit from this divergence.
Bullish points
Bullish points
Bearish points
- Dovish Monetary Policy
Bearish points
- Dovish Monetary Policy
The US Dollar (USD) is the most widely traded currency in the world and the primary reserve currency. It is the official currency of the United States and is often seen as the global standard for trade and investment. The USD’s price is influenced by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, inflation levels, and interest rates. Its dominance in global trade makes it highly correlated with other major currencies, especially the Euro and Japanese Yen. Key impact parameters for the USD include US economic growth (GDP), job market conditions, consumer spending, and the Fed’s policy decisions. As a safe-haven currency, the USD often rises during periods of global risk aversion. Its price is also sensitive to geopolitical events, such as US government policy changes and international conflicts.
USDCNY Analysis
Introduction
Fundamentals and Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve policy is Dovish with the (FED) current Interest rate 3.75%. Latest change was Dec 10, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the People's Bank of China policy is Dovish and (PBOC) has set its interest rate to 3% by latest change, May 20, 2025 (-10bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.
Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of USD is -- Neutral
Ziwox considering Moderate Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for USD is -11. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.
Market Overview & Performance
In the current trading session, "London", Market risk sentiment is Risk-OFF. The British pound and United States Dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Australian dollar are weakest so far.
Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.63% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.01% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.24% up as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.09%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.06%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.01% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.02% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.07%
Market Sentiment and Positioning
USD COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is -16347 included 18448 long, 34795 short and -239 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold USD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -239 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.
Retail Traders:
Technical Levels and Support/Resistance
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Before engaging in foreign currency trading, its important to carefully consider your own investment goals, experience level, and risk tolerance.
We want to emphasize that we cannot be held liable for any loss or damage, including potential profit loss, that may result from using or relying on this information. Your decisions are ultimately your own, and we encourage you to approach trading with caution and awareness.
