CHFJPY Analysis

Introduction

The CHF/JPY is a safe-haven pair, with both the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) benefiting from risk-averse market conditions. Both currencies appreciate during times of global uncertainty or financial instability. The pair’s price is influenced by global risk sentiment, with the JPY strengthening during periods of risk-off and the CHF benefiting from its safe-haven status. Economic data from Japan and Switzerland, such as GDP growth and inflation figures, as well as central bank policies (Swiss National Bank and Bank of Japan), also drive the pair.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Swiss National Bank policy is Dovish with the (SNB) current Interest rate 0%. Latest change was Jun 19, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 0.75% by latest change, Dec 19, 2025 (25bp).
(BOJ) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in JPY. This tends to attract foreign capital into JPY assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of CHF is Moderate Bearish and for the JPY is -- Neutral.
Ziwox considering Weak Bearish bias for this asset and we expect prices to decline in the long-term.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for CHF is 1. and Fundamental Score for JPY is 4. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney & Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and British pound recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Australian dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -10% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -1% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.91% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -1.19%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.93%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -1.07% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -1.14% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.94%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

CHF COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Swiss Franc is -43207 included 12257 long, 55464 short and 185 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CHF for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 185 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is -33933 included 104460 long, 138393 short and 10896 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold JPY for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 10896 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the CHFJPY with 45% 55% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability CHFJPY prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The CHFJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 194.695.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 198.238. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.