CHFJPY Analysis

Introduction

The CHF/JPY is a safe-haven pair, with both the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) benefiting from risk-averse market conditions. Both currencies appreciate during times of global uncertainty or financial instability. The pair’s price is influenced by global risk sentiment, with the JPY strengthening during periods of risk-off and the CHF benefiting from its safe-haven status. Economic data from Japan and Switzerland, such as GDP growth and inflation figures, as well as central bank policies (Swiss National Bank and Bank of Japan), also drive the pair.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Swiss National Bank policy is Dovish with the (SNB) current Interest rate 0.25%. Latest change was Mar 20, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 0.5% by latest change, Jan 24, 2025 (25bp).
(BOJ) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in JPY. This tends to attract foreign capital into JPY assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of CHF is Moderate Bearish and for the JPY is Moderate Bullish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bearish bias for this asset and we expect prices to decline in the long-term.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for CHF is 7. and Fundamental Score for JPY is -3. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Yen and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the Australian dollar and United States Dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.16% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.11% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.02% up as of now
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.06%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.19% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.17% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.11%

Market Sentiment and Positioning

CHF COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Swiss Franc is -23069 included 7443 long, 30512 short and 505 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CHF for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 505 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is 172268 included 194226 long, 21958 short and -4591 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought JPY for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -4591 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the CHFJPY with 42% 58% ratio. 1092 long pos and 1790 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability CHFJPY prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The CHFJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 172.094.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 176.089. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.