CHFJPY Analysis

Introduction

The CHF/JPY is a safe-haven pair, with both the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) benefiting from risk-averse market conditions. Both currencies appreciate during times of global uncertainty or financial instability. The pair’s price is influenced by global risk sentiment, with the JPY strengthening during periods of risk-off and the CHF benefiting from its safe-haven status. Economic data from Japan and Switzerland, such as GDP growth and inflation figures, as well as central bank policies (Swiss National Bank and Bank of Japan), also drive the pair.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Swiss National Bank policy is Dovish with the (SNB) current Interest rate 0%. Latest change was Jun 19, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 0.5% by latest change, Jan 24, 2025 (25bp).
(BOJ) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in JPY. This tends to attract foreign capital into JPY assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of CHF is Moderate Bearish and for the JPY is -- Neutral.
Ziwox considering Weak Bearish bias for this asset and we expect prices to decline in the long-term.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for CHF is -1. and Fundamental Score for JPY is 9. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "London & New York", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and Yen recorded the strongest performance, while the British pound and EUR are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.17% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.29% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.31% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.2%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.27%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.02% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.27% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.24%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

CHF COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Swiss Franc is -23018 included 8227 long, 31245 short and 3022 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CHF for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 3022 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is 79500 included 176400 long, 96900 short and 18089 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought JPY for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 18089 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the CHFJPY with 9% 91% ratio. 652 long pos and 4886 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability CHFJPY prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The CHFJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 190.722.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 193.625. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.