CADCHF Analysis

Introduction

The CAD/CHF reflects the relationship between the Canadian economy, which is heavily reliant on oil exports, and the Swiss economy, known for its political stability and financial services sector. This pair is influenced by the price of oil, as Canada is a major oil exporter. The Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) impact the pair through their monetary policies. The CAD/CHF also responds to global risk sentiment, with the CAD appreciating when oil prices rise, while the CHF tends to strengthen during periods of market uncertainty. Economic data from Canada (especially oil-related) and Switzerland’s economic stability are key drivers.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Bank of Canada policy is Dovish with the (BOC) current Interest rate 2.75%. Latest change was Mar 12, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Swiss National Bank policy is Dovish and (SNB) has set its interest rate to 0.25% by latest change, Mar 20, 2025 (-25bp).
(BOC) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in CAD. This tends to attract foreign capital into CAD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of CAD is -- Neutral and for the CHF is Moderate Bearish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for CAD is -2. and Fundamental Score for CHF is 7. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Tokyo & London", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Yen and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the Australian dollar and United States Dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.16% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.11% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.02% up as of now
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.06%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.19% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.17% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.11%

Market Sentiment and Positioning

CAD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Canadian Dollar is -82156 included 23250 long, 105406 short and -11511 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CAD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -11511 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

CHF COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Swiss Franc is -23069 included 7443 long, 30512 short and 505 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CHF for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 505 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the CADCHF with 86% 14% ratio. 8248 long pos and 1004 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability CADCHF prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The CADCHF pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 0.59499.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 0.60520. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.