AUDJPY Analysis

Introduction

The AUD/JPY reflects the relationship between the commodity-driven Australian economy and Japan’s export-heavy economy. This pair is affected by risk sentiment, with the AUD benefiting in times of economic expansion, while the JPY strengthens in times of global uncertainty. The pair’s movements are influenced by global commodity prices and economic data from both Australia and Japan.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Hawkish with the (RBA) current Interest rate 4.35%. Latest change was May 05, 2026 (25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 1% by latest change, Jun 16, 2026 (25bp).
(RBA) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in AUD. This tends to attract foreign capital into AUD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of AUD is Moderate Bearish and for the JPY is Weak Bullish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bearish bias for this asset and we expect prices to decline in the long-term.
mid-term Fundamental Score for AUD is 21. and Fundamental Score for JPY is 4. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "London", Market risk sentiment is Classic Risk-ON. The Canadian Dollar and British pound recorded the strongest performance, while the Yen and Gold are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.05% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.05% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.05% up as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.02%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.02%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.58% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.05% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.06%
Market risk sentiment is ON, This means Investors embrace risk, driving demand for riskier assets and higher-yielding currencies while safe-haven assets weaken.Due to the market risk sentiment, AUDJPY price increase is likely. Becasue investors are optimistic and willing to take higher risk on AUD and leading to increased demand for riskier assets like stocks, commodities, and higher-yielding currencies. Safe-haven assets like the USD, JPY, and gold typically weaken as confidence grows.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is -33190 included 74385 long, 107575 short and 6774 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold AUD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 6774 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is -45473 included 147228 long, 192701 short and 117939 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold JPY for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 117939 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the AUDJPY with 70% 30% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability AUDJPY prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The AUDJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 108.784.
Technical trend is Sell, So If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a significant area to watch for potential reversal or consolidation.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 113.504. Technically, If the pair continues to the upside, this resistance level could become a significant area to watch for sell entery potential.