AUDJPY Analysis

Introduction

The AUD/JPY reflects the relationship between the commodity-driven Australian economy and Japan’s export-heavy economy. This pair is affected by risk sentiment, with the AUD benefiting in times of economic expansion, while the JPY strengthens in times of global uncertainty. The pair’s movements are influenced by global commodity prices and economic data from both Australia and Japan.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Dovish with the (RBA) current Interest rate 3.6%. Latest change was Aug 12, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 0.5% by latest change, Jan 24, 2025 (25bp).
(RBA) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in AUD. This tends to attract foreign capital into AUD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of AUD is Weak Bullish and for the JPY is -- Neutral.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for AUD is 1. and Fundamental Score for JPY is 9. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "London & New York", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and Yen recorded the strongest performance, while the British pound and EUR are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.17% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.29% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.31% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.2%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.27%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.02% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.27% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.24%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.Due to the market risk sentiment, AUDJPY price reduction is likely. Becasue investors become risk-averse from AUD, seeking safety amid uncertainty or market turmoil, leading to a sell-off in riskier assets and a flight to safe havens like the USD, JPY, and gold. Currencies tied to riskier economies (e.g., AUD, NZD) tend to weaken.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is -59590 included 41994 long, 101584 short and -8430 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold AUD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -8430 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is 79500 included 176400 long, 96900 short and 18089 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought JPY for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 18089 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the AUDJPY with 18% 82% ratio. 532 long pos and 2174 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability AUDJPY prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The AUDJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 99.630.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 102.118. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.