AUDJPY Analysis

Introduction

The AUD/JPY reflects the relationship between the commodity-driven Australian economy and Japan’s export-heavy economy. This pair is affected by risk sentiment, with the AUD benefiting in times of economic expansion, while the JPY strengthens in times of global uncertainty. The pair’s movements are influenced by global commodity prices and economic data from both Australia and Japan.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Dovish with the (RBA) current Interest rate 4.1%. Latest change was Feb 18, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 0.5% by latest change, Jan 24, 2025 (25bp).
(RBA) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in AUD. This tends to attract foreign capital into AUD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of AUD is Weak Bullish and for the JPY is Moderate Bullish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bearish bias for this asset and we expect prices to decline in the long-term. and Fundamental Score for JPY is -3. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Yen and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the Australian dollar and United States Dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.16% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.11% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.02% up as of now
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.06%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.19% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.17% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.11%

Market Sentiment and Positioning

AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is -49346 included 25507 long, 74853 short and -974 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold AUD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -974 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is 172268 included 194226 long, 21958 short and -4591 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought JPY for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -4591 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the AUDJPY with 66% 34% ratio. 1460 long pos and 636 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability AUDJPY prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The AUDJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 92.583.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 94.656. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.