AUDJPY Analysis

Introduction

The AUD/JPY reflects the relationship between the commodity-driven Australian economy and Japan’s export-heavy economy. This pair is affected by risk sentiment, with the AUD benefiting in times of economic expansion, while the JPY strengthens in times of global uncertainty. The pair’s movements are influenced by global commodity prices and economic data from both Australia and Japan.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Dovish with the (RBA) current Interest rate 3.85%. Latest change was Feb 03, 2026 (25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 0.75% by latest change, Dec 19, 2025 (25bp).
(RBA) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in AUD. This tends to attract foreign capital into AUD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of AUD is Weak Bullish and for the JPY is -- Neutral.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for AUD is 23. and Fundamental Score for JPY is -3. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "London", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-ON. The Gold and Australian dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Yen and United States Dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.99% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.12% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.14% up as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.45%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.32%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.12% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.04% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.13%
Market risk sentiment is ON, This means Investors embrace risk, driving demand for riskier assets and higher-yielding currencies while safe-haven assets weaken.Due to the market risk sentiment, AUDJPY price increase is likely. Becasue investors are optimistic and willing to take higher risk on AUD and leading to increased demand for riskier assets like stocks, commodities, and higher-yielding currencies. Safe-haven assets like the USD, JPY, and gold typically weaken as confidence grows.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is 33209 included 112766 long, 79557 short and 7091 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought AUD for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 7091 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.

JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is -19106 included 128090 long, 147196 short and 116 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold JPY for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 116 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the AUDJPY with 66% 34% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability AUDJPY prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The AUDJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 107.500.
Technical trend is Sell, So If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a significant area to watch for potential reversal or consolidation.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 110.470. Technically, If the pair continues to the upside, this resistance level could become a significant area to watch for sell entery potential.