AUDJPY Analysis

Introduction

The AUD/JPY reflects the relationship between the commodity-driven Australian economy and Japan’s export-heavy economy. This pair is affected by risk sentiment, with the AUD benefiting in times of economic expansion, while the JPY strengthens in times of global uncertainty. The pair’s movements are influenced by global commodity prices and economic data from both Australia and Japan.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Hawkish with the (RBA) current Interest rate 4.35%. Latest change was May 05, 2026 (25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 0.75% by latest change, Dec 19, 2025 (25bp).
(RBA) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in AUD. This tends to attract foreign capital into AUD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of AUD is Moderate Bearish and for the JPY is Weak Bullish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bearish bias for this asset and we expect prices to decline in the long-term.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for AUD is 17. and Fundamental Score for JPY is 6. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Australian dollar and United States Dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and New Zealand Dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.76% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.18% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.12% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.28%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.32%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.11% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.15% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.07%

Market Sentiment and Positioning

AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is 78674 included 143214 long, 64540 short and 6805 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought AUD for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 6805 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.

JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is -61738 included 109035 long, 170773 short and 40321 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold JPY for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 40321 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the AUDJPY with 52% 48% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability AUDJPY prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The AUDJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 112.287.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 116.354. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.