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- Interest Rate2.4
- Inflation Rate MoM0.6
- Inflation Expectations2.9
- Retail Sales MoM0.3
- GDP Growth Rate0
- GDP m/m
- Manufacturing PMI48.7
- Services PMI 49.7
- Unemployment Rate6.1
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- 4.5Interest Rate
- 0Inflation Rate MoM
- 3.6Inflation Expectations
- 1.4Retail Sales MoM
- 2.4GDP Growth Rate
- GDP m/m
- 50.7Manufacturing PMI
- 51.4Services PMI
- 4.2Unemployment Rate
Day Trading
Short Term/Scalp Opportunity
Waiting for confirmations
Swing Trading
Long Term Opportunity
Long at major support areas.
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Fundamental Bias is Bullish
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Forecast is Bullish
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Trend is Buy
Dynamic supports at S3 (1.11425) and S4 (1.11425) could be apropos entries
The Euro (EUR) is the official currency of the Eurozone, consisting of 19 of the 27 European Union (EU) member countries. It is the second most traded currency in the world and serves as a symbol of European economic integration. The Euro was introduced in 1999, and its value is influenced by the economic stability of the Eurozone. Key points include its central role in global trade and finance, with the European Central Bank (ECB) being responsible for its monetary policy. The Euro often shows strong correlations with the USD and commodity prices due to the economic dynamics of Europe and the global trade market. The Euro’s price is driven by factors such as GDP growth, inflation rates, political stability within the EU, and interest rates set by the ECB. In times of geopolitical instability, the Euro may weaken, while a stable economic outlook in the Eurozone can lead to strengthening.
The US Dollar (USD) is the most widely traded currency in the world and the primary reserve currency. It is the official currency of the United States and is often seen as the global standard for trade and investment. The USD’s price is influenced by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, inflation levels, and interest rates. Its dominance in global trade makes it highly correlated with other major currencies, especially the Euro and Japanese Yen. Key impact parameters for the USD include US economic growth (GDP), job market conditions, consumer spending, and the Fed’s policy decisions. As a safe-haven currency, the USD often rises during periods of global risk aversion. Its price is also sensitive to geopolitical events, such as US government policy changes and international conflicts.
EURUSD Analysis
Introduction
The EUR/USD is the most traded currency pair in the world. It represents the relationship between the Euro and the US Dollar. The price of this pair is heavily influenced by interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), as well as economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment, and inflation in the Eurozone and the US. Key correlations include its inverse relationship with commodity prices, especially crude oil, and its sensitivity to global risk sentiment. The EUR/USD often acts as a benchmark for other currency pairs.
Fundamentals and Interest Rates
The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.4%. Latest change was Apr 17, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Federal Reserve policy is Dovish and (FED) has set its interest rate to 4.5% by latest change, Dec 18, 2024 (-25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.
Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Weak Bullish and for the USD is Moderate Bearish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is 4. and Fundamental Score for USD is -3. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.
Market Overview & Performance
In the current trading session, "London & New York", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and Canadian Dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Switzerland Frank are weakest so far.
Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -1.22% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.32% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.33% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.41%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.35%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.38% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.5% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.14%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.
Market Sentiment and Positioning
EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >Euro is 65028 included 196205 long, 131177 short and -4252 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought EUR for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -4252 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.
USD COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is -974 included 18696 long, 19670 short and -2802 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold USD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -2802 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.
Retail Traders:
Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the EURUSD with 36% 64% ratio. 28946 long pos and 41401 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability EURUSD prices may continue to rise.
Technical Levels and Support/Resistance
The EURUSD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 1.11425.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.16110. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.
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