EURUSD Analysis

Introduction

The EUR/USD is the most traded currency pair in the world. It represents the relationship between the Euro and the US Dollar. The price of this pair is heavily influenced by interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), as well as economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment, and inflation in the Eurozone and the US. Key correlations include its inverse relationship with commodity prices, especially crude oil, and its sensitivity to global risk sentiment. The EUR/USD often acts as a benchmark for other currency pairs.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.4%. Latest change was Apr 17, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Federal Reserve policy is Dovish and (FED) has set its interest rate to 4.5% by latest change, Dec 18, 2024 (-25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Weak Bullish and for the USD is Moderate Bearish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is 4. and Fundamental Score for USD is -3. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "London & New York", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and Canadian Dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Switzerland Frank are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -1.22% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.32% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.33% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.41%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.35%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.38% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.5% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.14%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Euro is 65028 included 196205 long, 131177 short and -4252 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought EUR for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -4252 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

USD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is -974 included 18696 long, 19670 short and -2802 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold USD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -2802 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the EURUSD with 36% 64% ratio. 28946 long pos and 41401 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability EURUSD prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The EURUSD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 1.11425.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.16110. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.