Weekly gold analysis

The short-term rise of gold does not reduce the pressure of the Federal Reserve in the market.

📌 Key points and overview:

  • Inflation data on home sales and jobless claims could be scenes of the Fed’s continued trend
  • $1670 and $1680 could be your resistance to sell opportunity and $1620 could be your target
From Ziwox Terminal: Fundamentally Gold is bearish, Ziwox AI forecast is bearish too

📝 Analysis:

Gold in the past week!

The news of the Wall Street Journal and the possible intervention of the yen at the end of the week caused great fluctuations in the market and caused the gold market to turn green. The market is looking for clues about these fluctuations to make sure, it has the power to join these fluctuations or the news.
The Wall Street Journal reported that some members of the Federal Reserve are considering slowing the pace of rate hikes after November as volatility and uncertainty grip financial markets. Therefore, many traders thought that it was the end of the Federal Reserve.

This week’s calendar is full of important news. First, we have the meeting of the central bank of Canada ahead of which the markets expect an increase in interest rates, but there is a difference of opinion about the amount of this increase. Meanwhile, in Europe, a 0.75% increase by the European Central Bank is almost certain and now the emphasis is on the press conference. Finally, we come to the Bank of Japan, where all experts believe that there is currently no plan to increase interest rates.

Considering the upward momentum of gold and the intervention of the Central Bank of Japan in the promissory note market, it is possible that we will continue to see growth in gold, but we do not suggest that you follow the gold market in order to buy. We are not yet at the end of the contractionary policy cycle and this could keep pressure on gold.

The short-term rise of gold does not reduce the pressure of the Federal Reserve in the market.

Although gold is at attractive prices, making it an attractive long-term buy, it will remain bearish in the short term as banks pursue monetary tightening policies and the Federal Reserve is not yet ready to turn around its policies, which supports the US dollar and will put pressure on gold.

Big traders think of buying gold only when there is no more pressure from the Federal Reserve and the growth of the dollar, and the first signs of this should be followed by successive reductions in inflation.


📉 Technical view:

🔸 $1670 and $1680 could be your resistance to sell opportunity and $1620 could be your target

Gold short-term rise does not reduce the pressure of the FED by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

📰 Important calendar events

This week’s New home sales data and the number of Pending Home sales, as well as the release of jobless claims data, could give us big clues as to what the Federal Reserve is predicting.

Weekly gold analysis

Gold is trying to go down to the $1620 area because of U.S inflation and the last CPI print

📌 Key points and overview:

  • Considering the market’s reaction to last week’s inflation data, we predict that market traders will prepare themselves for the aggressiveness of the next FOMC session.
  • Traders should focus on the Home sales calendar data and Russia and Ukraine Political, and military tensions news
  • Fundamental bias is Bearish, Trend is SELL
  • Retail traders are in long positions

📝 Analysis:

Over the past few months, any increasing sign in US inflation has caused gold to fall because it forces the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
The Federal Reserve will increase the interest rate with the increase in inflation, but on the other hand, the only issue that can stop the increase in interest rates is the employment data and the increase of the unemployed.
Following the consumer price index and inflation data, the US dollar recovered from its weekly lows and put downward pressure on gold.
Strong U.S. consumer inflation numbers reaffirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve will stick to its aggressive policy tightening path.
Because we knew this information, we could predict the trend of the last week correctly.
We said that any correction of the price of gold upwards can provide a new selling position.
According to CME FedWatch, the U.S. dollar’s strong growth comes from a 99% expectation of a 75bp interest rate hike in November, a 74 percent chance of a 50 basis point hike in December, and possibly a series of smaller hikes in February, and March.
As long as the current macro environment holds, more downside is likely for gold.
Considering the market’s reaction to last week’s inflation data, we predict that market traders will prepare themselves for the aggressiveness of the next FOMC session.


📉 Technical view:

🔸 The leading economic data this week is data on home sales and building permits
🔸 In addition to economic data, we should focus on the events of Russia and Ukraine Political, and military tensions
🔸 From a technical point of view, the next target of sellers is $1620 and any retracement to the $1660-$1670 is another selling opportunity.

Weekly gold analysis and opportunity by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

📰 Important calendar events

Wed Oct 19

  • Building Permits (Sep)
  • Crude Oil Inventories

Thu Oct 20

  • Initial Jobless Claims
  • Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
  • Existing Home Sales (Sep)

Weekly gold analysis

📝 Weekly gold

This year, stocks down around 20%, the Dollar index is at higher highs of 112.17 since 2002, and US10Y is at a higher value than 10 years ago.
Traders invest in Gold to protect their assets from inflations but now, all the headlines talk about recession.
Rising bond yields, the Central bank’s Interest rate Hikes, and the strength of the US dollar were the most important pressure, and bearish drivers, for gold and stocks in the third quarter.
But, the last week, With high inflation in the world, which requires a Hawkish monetary policy, the British central bank (BOE) began to collect and buy bonds!!
The action of the British central bank, unlike the other bank’s hawkish policies, surprised everyone and created strange turbulences in the currency market and supports stocks.

Now, Whats the point?

◽️ Traders will keep eyes on global bond markets for next week because if the Bank of England’s strange policies continue, it could help gold to rise
while the Bank of Japan, which is concerned about high prices in USDJPY, should intervene in the forex market. In addition to buying yen, they can sell US bonds in the markets and witness fluctuations in bond yields.

◽️ The risk of the economic recession is the driver of the rise of gold. But in the short term, the attention of all traders is on contractionary policies and decisions of central banks, which can put pressure on gold.
As we told you in last week’s analysis, any upside movement in gold will be short-term and provide a selling opportunity.
Because the US dollar is in the overbought zone and also the bonds are at their highest points, the take profits have the possibility of raising the price of the gold.
On the other hand, due to the hawkish policies of the central banks as well as the US central bank, this pressure on gold will not be removed
and as long as we observe the rotation of the monetary policies of the central banks, we cannot expect a stable rise for gold.

◽️ The world’s largest bond market has fluctuated strongly in the last week due to the fear of the British debt crisis.
But, with the intervention of the BOE and the introduction of the government bond purchase program, the treasury bonds’ price fall was compensated.
The trend changed as the Bank of England intervened in the bond market and it lowered the yield of American bonds.
Now, in addition to the policies of the Federal Reserve, other central banks also affect bonds and we have to care about them.

For this week in the American economic calendar, we have mixed data.
The forecast for ISM PMI is 52.2 and ISM PMI 56 and both of them decreased
Aug Job openings forecast a decrease in employment, but ADP nonfarm Employment changes show an increase.
The jobless claims index is more than the previous number and NFP payrolls decreased.

🔻 As we said in the analysis, gold is bearish in the medium and long term until we see a turn in the contractionary policies of the central banks
But this week due to the upcoming economic data and the possibility of correction of the US dollar index and US bond yields, there is a possibility of gold increase.
However, we predict a turbulent week and our suggestion to traders is to wait this week and sell gold from the high points.

🔻 $1700 to $1724 is our sightly range to looking the short opportunity to the$1620 area

Weekly gold, another short opportunity by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

Weekly gold analysis

📝 Weekly gold

From the beginning of 2022 to this moment, It was the best for the US dollar.
In the last 9 months, this global reserve currency has taken full advantage of the increase in interest rates, risk-averse flows, and the lack of a suitable alternative during the recession.
In last Powell speak, he said, would do whatever it takes to control inflation, even if the measures lead to recession. This strengthened the US dollar again and kept the rise of gold.

◽️ A strong labor market has convinced the Fed chief that the economy can withstand the central bank’s contractionary policies without going into recession According to this, interest rates will remain at high levels for a while

◽️ Gold has room to see higher prices but, we have to be more careful about our trades when FED is ready for another new hike.
Currently, the market has priced in an 85% probability of a 0.75% interest rate hike for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

◽️ This week’s economic data is very important like previous weeks because inflation data (CPI) can show the roadmap of the central bank and how successful it is in curbing inflation.
Inflationary expectations have decreased slightly and if it continues for several months, it will lead traders to bet on reducing hawkish policies.
A weaker release data could be pressure on the USD and could push the gold too and the effect could be just for a short term Because we know about the policies of the central bank and the 4% target at the end of the year

🔻 What our team predicts is that the dollar will have a downward bias this week due to lower inflation expectations, and for that reason, gold can grow in the short term.
but keep in mind, that the mid-term bias of the US dollar is bullish and Gold is bearish. So you should expect a little upward return for gold.

🔻 Your support levels could be $1690 and $1700, and the resistance for your long positions is $1728 and $1745
🔻 A price fixing above the $1728 area can lead to higher rates for gold. District $1745 and $1760

Long on GOLD, just for short-term by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

Weekly gold analysis

📝 Weekly gold

◽️ Gold jumped more than 1 percent in its final days after last week’s sharp decline, led by weaker U.S. jobs data, but remains under pressure from higher interest rates to continue its downtrend.

◽️ The number of jobs reported was close to market expectations and the market reaction to that data was neither good nor bad. But it had a same result for invetors. However, the jobs data was not very good and this makes the Federal Reserve pay more to continue its policies.

◽️ Gold remains under pressure due to the increase in interest rates by the world’s central banks, which recently Europe also had to give in to this increase in interest rates. Because higher rates of banks with the lowest risk can be better than gold or any other assets with a lower yield.

◽️ As long as the current upward rally of the dollar continues, gold will also be dominated by the dollar on the margins, but important thing is that the dollar has been buying at the upper areas for a long time, and any speculators taking profit can be a strong driver for gold buyers.

◽️ The meetings of the ECB, BOC, and Australian RBA for their interest rate hike next week can melt some frozen attention from the US dollar to themselves, and this can be a correction for the dollar and a little rise for gold.

Bearish forecast by The Ziwox AI is around 56% and Bullish is around 38%

Fundamental bias is Bearsih, retail traders position ratio are almost equal, 45% Long vs 55% short

and the COT report shows that 6% of speculators were close their buy positions.

🔻 From a technical point of view, the decline and stabilization of the gold price below the price of 1680 will leave no way for gold to rise. But our analysis team sees the price of gold above $1,700 for at least this week because everything is set for a short-term turnaround. The pullback of gold to the level of $1,700 can raise gold to $1,728.

Weekly Gold analysis by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

Weekly gold analysis

◽️ After Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, sellers will have the upper hand because the Fed’s hawkish policies will continue.

◽️ This week’s NFP report has gained importance as speculation of the Fed’s next rate hike increases.

◽️ This week’s US NFP report is one of the final pieces of the September interest rate-setting puzzle for the FED.

◽️ We also have the Chicago PMI and the ADP employment report for Wednesday, and the ISM manufacturing PMI on Thursday. On Friday, the NFP report will be released, which is expected to have created 290,000 new jobs in August after the unexpected data of 528,000 jobs in the previous month.

◽️ But what is important is that the Fed said last week that keeping inflation under control is important to them and that they are not backing down from their hawkish stance even as fears of a recession intensify.

◽️ So the chance of an interest rate increase of 0.75% is still high And the only reason the Fed won’t budge from its hawkish stance is employment data. If the labor market suffers, the possibility of a 0.5% interest rate increase may still be exceeded

The Fed hiked rate based on CME data showing 61%

🔻 Fundamentally, there is nothing to effect on gold because the Fed said everything it had to say. US inflation and FED speak all priced on gold. According to our analytical analysis team, it is possible to trade the gold with US10Y in the short term.

🔻 If inflation continues, the Federal Reserve will reduce the rate of interest rate hikes

🔻 Friday’s inflation report is more important than Powell’s speech. Inflation is falling and gold should react positively.

🔻 Importante Supports: $1728, $1711 and $1700
🔻 Importante Resistance: $1754, $1765 and $1775


Important calendar events are:

Consumer confidence, Job opening, ADP nonfarm Employment, Jobless claims, ISM PMI, NFP aug

A better than expected PMI, NFP, force on gold

we are watching these events. because any worse than expected released data could force FED decisions and could push up the gold. and every better than expect for data release pressure for gold. because of good job data and inflation, the FED hand is open to hiking the rate by more than 0.5%

Gold Weekly analysis by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

Weekly gold analysis

The rise of the dollar index last week was able to put pressure on gold and we saw the drop in gold prices last week

The previous meeting of the Federal Reserve did not clarify the tasks of the traders very much, so the traders are looking to the next meetings for their final decision to see signs of an interest rate increase or ending it.

Global inflation is like a running horse that continues to rise and interest rates and the increase in interest rates have not yet been able to pull the reins of this horse.

Therefore, what we will probably hear from central bank managers will be words like determined efforts to reduce and control inflation.

So traders are looking for This week, Jackson Hole Symposium on Thursday, August 25. Comments and speeches from central banks and other influential officials can create significant market volatility.

The daily trend of gold is short and the pressure on gold is so much that it can record lower prices for itself

The price of $1722 will be achieved if the market once again finds signs of rising interest rates.

🔻 Based on Ziwox Terminal data, Trend is short, Fundamentally Gold is bearish, and our AI forecast report 82% sell vs 12% buy

🔻 Supports are: $1738, $1722 and $1712

🔻 Resistance: $1765 and $1803

🔻 Any upside reversal movement is a short opportunity

GOLD, XAUUSD Short, interest rate pressure and Jackson Hole Symp by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

Weekly gold analysis

◽️ With inflation decreasing and expectations of the FED hawkish policies withdrawal, gold was bullish in the past weeks

◽️ Signs of deflation have dampened the possibility of a 75bsp hike in September and weakened the dollar, but on the other hand, it has revived the stock market. This followed the adjustment in July’s CPI and PPI.

◽️ Due to the confusion after the latest inflation report (CPI, PPI), the market’s attention will be on economic growth data and Home sales. the housing sector is important for the economy that will be monitored for possible signs of recession.

◽️ July building permits and construction starts will be released on Tuesday and existing home sales on Thursday.

◽️ Despite intensifying fears of a recession due to negative pressure countering declining bond yields, recent positive data have had a complex effect on reducing risk-taking sentiment.

◽️ So a weak release of retail sales data could have a bigger reaction in the stock market, at least this time around. The dollar, however, may see a more limited decline as investors await the minutes of the Fed’s meeting to adjust their decision based on the Federal Reserve’s stance in September.

🔻 It is still too early to declare victory over inflation

🔻 According to analysts, the return of the dollar to the upward trend next week may put pressure on gold

🔻 A good release of retail sales and industrial production data will be consistent with Q2 GDP growth of 2-2.5% and will likely boost the Dela. The initial support for gold is in 1765

Weekly gold analysis

◽️ Last week, our expectation from the employment and wages report was weak data and weak US dollar, and rising gold.

◽️ Although the US data performed better than expected, it pushed gold to higher prices because everyone was shorting for weak data.

◽️ But now, after the publication of the NFP data, again we predict gold with a very high probability of downward pressure

◽️ Accordance to the CFTC report (COT), a 34% increase in gold long positions in the past week before the NFP data was about traders betting on a bad NFP release.

◽️ But now closing those long positions, can bring more downward pressure on gold

◽️ Now the possibility of an increase in American interest rates is higher than in the past

🔻 The possibility of FED interest rate increase is higher than past, and gold will lose its strength.

🔻 if $1750 support failed, Gold can see the $1720 and $1700 levels.

Weekly gold analysis

◽️ After weeks, gold prices ended the week with a 2% gain because of Less hawkish Fed talks and gave hopes to gold buyers

◽️ Jerome Powell said that further aggressive tightening remains possible because we don’t see any cessation sign in the market and we are focused on employment data.

◽️ But Commodities, risky assets, stocks, and gold grew, only for one reason, The Fed said there is a possible slowing of rising interest rates and we would remain data-dependent.

◽️The space for gold is growing up to $1785-$1800 available, but it is still too early to be sure about the upward trend because we still have the hawkish policies of the USA.

🔻 We have to pay attention to Friday’s NFP report and Unemployment Rate because they show the next road map for FED

🔻 We predict a lower number for NFP, so we will spect the growth of gold next week

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