Ziwox Weekly Gold analysis

Gold Analysis – December 4, 2023

Fundamental View

The fundamental outlook for gold suggests a mix of factors influencing its trajectory. Analysts predict a bullish trend, with forecasts ranging from $1,800 to $2,060 per ounce in 2023, and a continued upward trend in 2024. However, challenges like waning demand, driven by rising real rates and a stronger US dollar, persist, undermining gold’s strength. Gold is influenced by fluctuations in the US dollar and yields. The rise of gold by 14% from November 2022 to early February 2023 was supported by a less hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve.

The significant activity of buying gold by central banks with the net purchase of 800 tons of gold last year has been the main factor behind the positive performance of gold. In the absence of a clear catalyst, the increase in the price of gold on the day may be due to the execution of profit limits of long positions. In this case, we can have the possibility of a short-term retreat in the price of gold.

Latest Gold’s Rally

Gold crossed its August 2020 high due to expectations of a US interest rate cut and the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s comments fueled the gold rally. Gold prices were further boosted by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s comments on the restrictive monetary policy stance. The comment led to a decrease in yields and the US dollar, favoring the rise of gold.

There is always FED in between

Amid speculation of impending interest rate cuts, Powell cautioned against premature expectations. This led to a cautious market, with gold prices reflecting a hesitancy to react to signs of the Federal Reserve delaying rate cuts.

Market Sentiment and Influencing Factors

Gold prices fell today from Monday’s highs, perhaps reflecting the market’s reaction to signs that the Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut rates.
This sentiment was reflected in the Treasury market as the 10-year yield rose. The upcoming US labor force data, which is expected to show rising wages and Iran’s steady unemployment rate, could weigh on gold trends.

πŸ“… Economic Calendar

Technical View

The medium-term outlook for gold looks upbeat, however, the potential for real rates to rise in the face of deflation may weigh on gold investments, while net long positions have increased. ETF holdings have not risen significantly, reflecting mixed sentiment. It is in the gold market.

Any talk and possibility of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve can bring the price of gold back to the 1850 area, and if the expectations of an increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve continue to increase as in the past weeks, the price of gold will be above 50-20.

Our direction for gold remains bullish and dips can be bought. Significant levels for a buy scenario are the 2035 levels.

Long depended on Fed expectation by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

Calendar events

Affecting news/events for gold


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Ziwox Weekly Gold analysis

Weekly gold Analysis

Fundamental View

Gold has been unappealing to buyers for three weeks. Strong economic data and high inflation led to a drop in gold prices. For the third consecutive week, the price per ounce of gold fell, leading to renewed discussions of a June rate hike. This shift in interest rate projections is the primary explanation for the decrease in gold’s value.

The inflation growth rate has not decreased yet!

Macroeconomic data was the main driver of the market. The durable goods index, consumer spending, and US PCE inflation all exceeded projections. US Federal Reserve emphasized the PCE index, which peaked at 4.7% in April. The near 5% US inflation merits ongoing interest rate adjustments. 0.25% hike anticipated by investors.

The US dollar strengthened

While the ounce of gold is down, the US dollar is up. According to analysts, the gold ounce will likely be under pressure until the beginning of the third quarter of 2023 due to strengthening interest rate expectations. Meanwhile, the only debt crisis of the US federal government can support the gold ounce. Negotiations on raising the federal government’s debt ceiling are ongoing and have yet to come to a conclusion.

πŸ“… Economic Calendar

Technical View

It is still too early to talk about the formation of a price floor in the market. It is true that an ounce of gold has dropped from its historical peak of $125, but there is still no news of a price floor. It seems that the fair price of an ounce of gold is in the range of 1923 to 1945 dollars assuming US interest rate hikes in June and July.

According to the weekly chart of XAUUSD, the price has reached the upward trend line following the downward reversal from the rate of $2055. In this week’s trading, the ounce of gold will face the trend line again. It seems that the bearish momentum in the market has increased.

If selling pressures increase and the upward trend line is broken, the market structure will change to a downward trend its possible that the price drop to the first support area of $1,923, and the key support of $1,871

But if the trend line turns into support and the price crosses above the partial resistance of $1950, the market can start a new upward movement first up to the trend rate of $2000.

Weekly gold analysis by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

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Affecting news/events for gold


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Ziwox Weekly Gold analysis

Weekly gold Analysis

Fundamental View

Is gold still supported?

Although the ounce of gold had a rough week, falling almost $50 and experiencing its worst performance since February, we saw a bullish return to the market on Friday.

One of the biggest drivers for the ounce of gold was the strengthening of the US dollar. The price of an ounce of gold has an inverse relationship with the value of the US dollar. The US dollar strengthened in response to the country’s economic data and changed interest rate expectations. But last Friday, the head of the US Federal Reserve said interest rates may not rise much. He is concerned about the credit crunch in the American banking industry. Powell said that “financial stability tools have helped calm the situation. However, the developments in the American banking sector are such that they make financial and credit conditions difficult and will most likely harm economic growth, employment, and inflation. For this reason, perhaps there is no need for a quick and large increase in interest rates. And it happened that on Friday gold was supported in the range of 1950 and now it is trading in the range of 1980.

πŸ“… Economic Calendar

In the coming week, the FOMC Minutes will be published. In the meantime, the GDP data will be updated and the desired inflation index of the Federal Reserve (PCE) will be at the center of attention.

US federal government debt crisis

This is a sign that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates on record from June. After the words
The head of the US Federal Reserve, market interest rate expectations were weakened. From the point of view of the market, the possibility of an increase of 0.25 percentage points in the interest rate in June has reached 10%. Before this, the market was preparing to stop interest rate hikes from June. Several officials of the US Federal Reserve have backed away from the idea of stopping interest rate hikes. Even hopes for a rate cut at the end of 2023 have weakened.
Before the words of the head of the US Federal Reserve, the market was preparing for a 0.25 percentage point increase in the interest rate in June and had abandoned the expectation of a rate cut until the end of 2023. For this reason, we saw a sharp fall in the price of an ounce of gold. But it seems that the Federal Reserve Chairman’s comments have caused a change in interest rate expectations.

Technical View

According to analysts, it is expected that the price of an ounce of gold will experience an upward return from the current levels. However, there is a risk of an ounce of gold falling into the $1,900 range. The first resistance of the market is the 1980 range and then the 2000 dollar range. The support area of the market is in the range of 1960-1950 dollars. If negotiations to increase the federal government’s debt ceiling fail, the price of an ounce of gold could stabilize above $2,000.

Is gold still supported? by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

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Affecting news/events for gold


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Ziwox Weekly Gold analysis

Weekly gold Analysis

Fundamental View

Buyers of gold in recession, or sellers of it for a stronger dollar?

Volatility in the bond market and uncertainty about interest rate cuts are pushing the dollar higher, dimming the appeal of gold (XAU).

Last week, the recovery of the US dollar affected the price of gold (XAU) and put pressure on gold. Because market participants assessed the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in May. However, there are still many buyers and markets for gold, who see the fear of stagnation more strongly.

Now for this week. There are many things in the US economic calendar that will help traders know what to expect from the Fed. Investors are monitoring Economic growth data (GDP), jobless claims on Thursday, and PCE data on Friday. The GDP print is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.0% during this period, which means that a recession is not imminent. And If the PCE index prints much higher than expected, it reduces the likelihood that the Fed will hold off on rate hikes in May, especially if economic data is generally positive.

With this data, Investors evaluate the interest rate increase in May. Although the market expects a 25 basis point hike on May 3, uncertainty surrounding the possibility of a rate cut this year has caused volatility in the US bond market. The volatility of the bond market causes the dollar to move.

πŸ“… Economic Calendar

The market is currently looking at a 25 percent hike, with the direction of travel determined by whether the Fed will hold off on interest rate changes after that. While this could support gold prices, the recent market rally and overly technical conditions mean there is still scope for a downside if the Fed’s rate outlook is confirmed. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is an 84.6% chance of a 25% rate hike in May, with interest rate cuts expected later in the year. Higher interest rates reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding bullion.

Technical View

Gold has taken a downward trend in the four-hour time frame. This precious metal has locked itself in the $1960 to $2020 area. It shows that gold needs some drivers to rise or fall. Any sign of information that leads traders to fear further recession could push gold to the $2020-$2048 highs. But what we think is the better-than-expected print for the US economy makes more downward pressure on XAU.
Gold is currently trading at the price of $1982 dollars and is on a dynamic resistance. There is a possibility of a slight rise for gold at the beginning of the week, but we don’t have any rush to trade. If the economic data encourages us to sell gold, we will wait and do it in the $2000 to $2020 area, and if we going to buy gold, we will do it in $1960 or in the important key area of 1920 dollars.

Calendar events

Affecting news/events for gold

Thu Apr 27: 

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USD Advance GDP q/q and Unemployment Claims

Fri Apr 28:

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ USD Core PCE Price Index and USD Employment Cost Index


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Ziwox Weekly Gold analysis

Weekly gold Analysis

Fundamental View

Gold is still under buying pressure but it is at an important level

In the past week, gold was fixed above 2000 dollars. This consolidation was done right above the $2000 and $2002 area. Important and psychological area.
The momentum is still bullish and can rise again to its historical high. We mean the area of 2060. But this price jump definitely needs a catalyst as a driver.

The instability of the economy, the uncertainty in the decisions of the Federal Reserve to interest rate increasing cycles, the purchase of gold by central banks, the crisis of banks under the pressure of recession and inflation, as well as the decrease in bond yields make gold more attractive for buying than ever before.

If in the coming week, the employment data is higher than expected or if the inflation increases a lot, they can make gold fall sharply and return it to the previous level.

But any disappointing data or even close to expectations will stabilize gold in the current areas and even towards higher levels.

πŸ“… Economic Calendar


Technical View

Technically, gold is slightly overbought at current levels. But what is seen in the candlesticks (downward shadows) shows the pressure on buyers in this area.

If there is no better than expected data for the US economy (employers and CPI), any drop in the price of gold to a lower level can be considered as a correction and another opportunity for buying gold again.

any price drop considered as a correction and a BUY opportunity by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com


Calendar events

Important events for gold:

USD CPI and Core CPI, FOMC meeting on Wed

Ziwox calendar on 2023-04-10

Ziwox Weekly Gold analysis

Weekly gold Analysis

Fundamental View

Gold Growth stopped at a strong level of $2000

Last week, we mentioned the buy sentiments of gold as a safe-haven asset.
Now that the market has priced banking crises what are the gold movement drivers?

Recession, yes fear of stagnation is remain. Fear of recession in the global economy remains and now the gold buyers are still in their long positions.

Why do the world’s banks buy gold?

On the other hand, the multi-polarization of economic powers and the formation of new regions in the east by China and Russia, and the declining influence of the US dollar as the global reserve currency has been the main driver of gold’s rally to the $2,000 level last week.
Undoubtedly, China and Russia intend to free themselves from the vortex of the global economy, which is heavily dependent on the US dollar. The concern about the extreme fluctuations of the dollar and the euro has caused the demand for gold to increase from the central banks of the world. Concerns about the trade war and the possibility of a currency war between China and the United States are also considered important factors.

Last week, we read in the news that China made its first liquefied natural gas transaction in yuan through the Shanghai Oil and Gas Exchange. Also, last week, China and Brazil announced that they will carry out trade and financial exchanges between them in Riel (Brazil’s currency) and Yuan, to which Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the Middle East have also been added. The result is less use of US dollars and more use of gold.

Technical View

The closing price in the previous month’s candle shows the strong power of major buyers of gold, and this defends the upward trend of gold in the long term.

From a technical point of view, we are currently in the overbought zone for Gold/XAU. This does not mean that gold will go down. Rather, we consider it only a price correction and collecting more liquidity at lower prices for new buyers.

$1955, $1937, and $1910 are our main support levels.

Gold Growth stopped at a strong level of $2000 by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

Calendar events

Mon Apr 3, ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (MAR)

Wed Apr 5, ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (MAR)

and on Fri Apr 7 NONFARM PAYROLLS (MAR) is our main event’s impact on gold.

Ziwox Weekly Gold analysis

Weekly gold Analysis

Fundamental View

A safe haven for every trader

At any time in history, if any risk enters the market, traders turn to safe areas to protect their assets.
In the past few months, gold has been the best safest place for all financial risks.
From recession to financial crises and recently banking problems. As a result, traders withdraw their assets from banks and keep them safe in gold.

In the last week, gold grew by about 9%, and the only reason for that is the gold’s paradise, traders took their money out of bankrupt banks and invested in gold.

Even before the financial crisis, many analysts believed that the possibility of a pivot in FED monetary policies was imminent. Now with the bank crisis, Sooner or later, this would happen. so the conditions are set for a bullish gold market.

Technical View

From a technical point of view, gold is in an over-bought area and retail traders may be thinking about short on these levels of gold. but what the smart money has entered into gold is heavy long. Therefore, in the short term, before breaking the last high resistance levels, 2000 and 2070 dollars, we will probably see the price of gold in side way.

On the other hand, Markets don’t rises and fall like a waterfall and need a correction, but in no way is this correction suitable for selling, you should lurk and wait to buy gold at lower levels.

$1946, $1911, and $1877 are the main support levels.

A safe haven for every trader by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

Calendar events

On Tuesday we have the Australian central bank’s meeting.
Wednesday is our volatile forex day. The FOMC and the FED interest rate decision will strongly impact the gold price. any sign of hawkish policy makes pressure on gold and any dovish policy pushes gold higher.

FED interest rate decision and FOMC press conference on Wed, Mar 22

Weekly gold analysis

We will be waiting for calendar prints

Key points and overview:
  • Technical view can range between 1730$ and 1764$
  • Any lower than expectations can be a helping hand for gold to rise, and any US data more than expected can be a downward pressure for downside gold.

Ziwox Terminal Gold data

Fundamental bias is Bearish

Forecast: 53% Bullish, 11% Bearish


Fundamental Analysis:

After the sharp rise of gold, last week we saw the correction of gold in the range of 1730 dollars.
The correction was due to lower-than-expected inflation data for the United States.
But after that, the re-decline of the US dollar and the retreat of US bond yields helped gold to move slightly higher and reach the $1,760 range.

But for this week.
Incoming week all economic data from the US are expected to be lower than the previous value.
it makes the retail traders inclined to sell the dollar, and therefore in the short term we will see the growth of gold, but we have to wait for the result of the actual data.
Any lower than expectations can be a helping hand for gold to rise, and any US data more than expected can be a downward pressure for downside gold.
CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that markets have priced in a 70% chance of a 50bp FED rate hike in December.
As a result, good economic data will have less impact on the rise of the dollar, while bad economic data can severely downward pressure on the US dollar.


Technical View:

From a technical point of view, gold was able to establish itself above the range of $1730. It can range between 1730$ and 1764$
Also, the price is currently trading above the moving average of 200, which shows that the bullish bias stays intact.
1705$ and 1734$-1730$ are important to support levels.
1760$ and 1780$ are important resistance.

Gold trade idea, base on US calendar data print by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com


Important Calendar events:

ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, JOB OPENINGS, HOME SALES, JOBLESS CLAIMS and ISM PMI

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish labor market data for the month of November.
Non-farm payrolls (NFP) are expected to decline by 39,000 following growth of 239,000 in October.
A print of less than 200,000 will likely weigh on the US dollar and push gold higher.
A disappointing jobs report on Wednesday and Thursday could signal a smaller interest rate hike for the Federal Reserve.
If the market has such an assessment, it will reduce the yield of US bonds, which is extremely beneficial for the rise of gold.
On Thursday, the ISM Institute will release the manufacturing PMI data for November. The PMI is expected to drop to 49.8 from 50.2 in October.
If the ISM PMI report shows that price pressures ease in November, the US dollar may come under selling pressure. And in this scenario, gold prices can rise in short-term reactions

Weekly gold analysis

We will be waiting for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday

Key points and overview:
  • We can think about it to buy at lower prices with the lowest risk.
  • Disappointing home and building sales data could bolster expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow its rate of contraction.
  • End-of-week flows could change the sentiment and play an important role in keeping gold on the sidelines ahead of next week’s Fed meeting minutes.

Analysis:

About 10% growth last week! What can be said? Sharpe’s move last week narrows the way for Saud in the short term. Gold needs correction.
The Federal Reserve will likely indicate that it will continue to raise interest rates. What we expect according to recent job market data.
It is true that we are cautious because the change in the contractionary policies of the Federal Reserve is likely, but we cannot expect such a short-term reduction in inflation data alone.
We will need at least a few months of consecutive downward inflation.
On the other hand, the sudden growth of gold last week showed how attractive the price of gold is for buyers, I mean the price of $1,620. They think these prices are cheap.

Since we don’t know how strong the Federal Reserve will be in its upcoming meetings, or we don’t know if they will talk more softly, selling gold is a bit risky.
We have to wait because the Fed’s job with inflation is not done yet. On the other hand, many buyers are waiting in the low prices area.
Our suggestion is simple, let’s wait for this last growth of gold to rest in a correction, we can think about it to buy at lower prices with the lowest risk.

The Fed’s pressure on the dollar to control inflation will put the US into a recession.
We cannot accurately determine the magnitude of this recession, but what is clear is that it will be a recession, and the winners of this recession are gold buyers.


Technical View:

The head and shoulder pattern is ready to be broken in the 1-hour time frame. The tide of this pattern can make gold bearish in the short term.
You can accompany gold in the downward movement by keeping the risk low because the Federal Reserve supports you.
But our team tries to be on the lookout to be a buyer of gold at lower prices.

  • Failure of 1745$ levels can lead the way for gold to fall to the 1720$ and 1700$ levels.

Important Calendar events:

This week we will have construction data. Disappointing data could reinforce expectations of a slowdown in the Fed’s pace of contraction. The decline in the value of the US dollar can be the engine for gold to rise again.
However, End-of-week flows could change the sentiment and play an important role in keeping gold on the sidelines ahead of next week’s Fed meeting minutes.

Weekly gold analysis

We will be waiting for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday

πŸ“Œ Key points and overview:

  • Fundamentally, we will only think about buy positions when there is a clear change in FED policies.
  • We are looking for another sell opportunity at $1680 and $1700 levels
  • US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI and JOLTS JOB OPENINGS(SEP) are predicted tools for Wednesday 2Nov FOMC STATEMENT and FED INTEREST RATE DECISION
Fundamental bias is bearish, and Ziwox AI forecast is bearish too. Trend is Sell with COT report of -12% decrease in long positions.

πŸ“ Analysis:

Gold in the past week!

In the past week, gold has stopped following an uptrend as the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, which rose nearly 1% in the last few days of the week, forced gold to pull back.
Another reason for the decline in gold can be attributed to the rebound correction of the dollar index last weekend.

But in relation to this week,
The issue that analysts and big traders in the market have a consensus on is the risk and the possibility of slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Over the past months, we have consistently seen extremely aggressive Federal Reserve policies.
Aggressive increases in interest rates put pressure on the forex market. What we saw in both gold and cryptocurrency.


But what is now apparent to traders are two issues

  1. Slowing down the rate of inflation increases the speculation for the softening of the Federal Reserve’s policies
  2. Although inflation has not decreased significantly, we have seen decreases in the labor market
    Analysts and traders predict the possibility of the last cycle of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve

We never trade based on probabilities, but we tell all the possibilities in order to have a correct view of the market and avoid ambiguous trades.
So, according to the information mentioned above, we will be waiting for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, November 2, together with the big market traders. The results obtained from this meeting will give us a better view of the future of gold.


πŸ“‰ Technical view:

πŸ”Έ $1620 is our strong support area and $1680

πŸ”ΈBy technical point of view, if I am looking to buy gold, I’m waiting for the price of gold stabilize above the rate of $1,700

πŸ”ΈBut Personally, We are looking for another sell opportunity at $1680 and $1700 levels, and for taking any long positions, fundamentally, We will only think about it when there is a clear change in FED policies.

3 possible gold movement depended on FED decisions by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

πŸ“° Important calendar events:
This week, a higher print of China MANUFACTURING PMI could be a driver for starting the week and the hope of the market.
And the highlighted events are US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI and JOLTS JOB OPENINGS(SEP)
because they are predicted tools for Wednesday 2Nov FOMC STATEMENT and FED INTEREST RATE DECISION
Any higher print could push down the gold and stocks

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