The Australian dollar is heading lower despite the recent recovery

AUDCHF Trade idea

Consumer inflation in Australia eased more than expected, according to data released on Wednesday, dampening hopes of another rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia next week and putting further downward pressure on the Australian dollar.

Expectations of an increase in interest rates by the Australian central bank have dropped from 60% to 30% two weeks ago. Also, at the moment, the position of retail traders is more than 90% in the purchase period, which indicates more downward movements, on the other hand, it follows the announcement of the fifth consecutive increase in the interest rate by the Swiss Central Bank and a sign of a possible increase in the rate in the future to deal with inflationary pressures.
Despite the downward revision of the inflation forecast for 2023, the central bank has increased its forecast for the inflation of 2024 due to the effects of the second round of electricity price increases, rent increases, and continuous inflationary pressures from international sources. The AUDCHF currency pair remains bearish, but this currency pair is in a tight bearish position and can be suitable for selling if it recovers to higher levels. 0.6050-0.6067 could be low-risk levels to enter a short position. if you are a scalper trader, 0.601 is yours.

AUDCHF Trade Idea by Alisabbaghi on

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Reserve Bank of Australia logo AUD RBA

Analysts evenly split between 0.25% hike and no rate hike

RBA April 4 meeting poll: Analysts evenly split between 0.25% hike and no rate hike

Out of 27 analysts, 14 of them believe that the interest rate will increase and 13 of them expect a pause.

According to a Reuters poll of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s April 4 meeting:

Benjamin Picton, chief macro strategist at Rabobank: February’s inflation rate cut is not enough for the Reserve Bank of Australia to abandon its contractionary bias, as labor market indicators and relatively high inflation all point to the need for further contraction.

Gareth Aird, Chief Australian Economist at CBA, believes that the Central Bank of Australia’s messages have been somewhat erratic since the beginning of the year. “In a short period of time, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been talking about their forecasts of how much more or less contractionary they think policy should be.”

AUD - RBA Australia central bank

Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes

Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes: Governing Council agrees to revisit interest rate freeze case

Restrictive policy and an uncertain outlook are appropriate at some stage to keep rates steady

TOEFF provides time to reassess the outlook for the economy

The board tracks data on jobs, inflation, retail sales, business surveys, and global developments.

Further tightening of monetary policy is likely to be needed to reduce inflation

Inflation is very high, the job market is competitive and business surveys are strong

Reduced productivity can lead to more persistent inflation

The board noted that Australia’s lower interest rates than several other countries could weigh on the Australian dollar

Recent data has been softer than expected and growth appears to have continued into the second quarter

The Board felt it prudent not to place too much weight on single-period data

The board noted the financial pressure on some borrowers, consumption a key uncertainty

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