Gold is trying to go down to the $1620 area because of U.S inflation and the last CPI print

πŸ“Œ Key points and overview:

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  • Considering the market’s reaction to last week’s inflation data, we predict that market traders will prepare themselves for the aggressiveness of the next FOMC session.
  • Traders should focus on the Home sales calendar data and Russia and Ukraine Political, and military tensions news
  • Fundamental bias is Bearish, Trend is SELL
  • Retail traders are in long positions

πŸ“ Analysis:

Over the past few months, any increasing sign in US inflation has caused gold to fall because it forces the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
The Federal Reserve will increase the interest rate with the increase in inflation, but on the other hand, the only issue that can stop the increase in interest rates is the employment data and the increase of the unemployed.
Following the consumer price index and inflation data, the US dollar recovered from its weekly lows and put downward pressure on gold.
Strong U.S. consumer inflation numbers reaffirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve will stick to its aggressive policy tightening path.
Because we knew this information, we could predict the trend of the last week correctly.
We said that any correction of the price of gold upwards can provide a new selling position.
According to CME FedWatch, the U.S. dollar’s strong growth comes from a 99% expectation of a 75bp interest rate hike in November, a 74 percent chance of a 50 basis point hike in December, and possibly a series of smaller hikes in February, and March.
As long as the current macro environment holds, more downside is likely for gold.
Considering the market’s reaction to last week’s inflation data, we predict that market traders will prepare themselves for the aggressiveness of the next FOMC session.


πŸ“‰ Technical view:

πŸ”Έ The leading economic data this week is data on home sales and building permits
πŸ”Έ In addition to economic data, we should focus on the events of Russia and Ukraine Political, and military tensions
πŸ”Έ From a technical point of view, the next target of sellers is $1620 and any retracement to the $1660-$1670 is another selling opportunity.

Weekly gold analysis and opportunity by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

πŸ“° Important calendar events

Wed Oct 19

  • Building Permits (Sep)
  • Crude Oil Inventories

Thu Oct 20

  • Initial Jobless Claims
  • Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
  • Existing Home Sales (Sep)