We will be waiting for calendar prints

Key points and overview:

• Technical view can range between 1730$ and 1764$
• Any lower than expectations can be a helping hand for gold to rise, and any US data more than expected can be a downward pressure for downside gold.

Ziwox Terminal Gold data

Fundamental bias is Bearish

Forecast: 53% Bullish, 11% Bearish

Fundamental Analysis:

After the sharp rise of gold, last week we saw the correction of gold in the range of 1730 dollars.
The correction was due to lower-than-expected inflation data for the United States.
But after that, the re-decline of the US dollar and the retreat of US bond yields helped gold to move slightly higher and reach the $1,760 range.

But for this week.
Incoming week all economic data from the US are expected to be lower than the previous value.
it makes the retail traders inclined to sell the dollar, and therefore in the short term we will see the growth of gold, but we have to wait for the result of the actual data.
Any lower than expectations can be a helping hand for gold to rise, and any US data more than expected can be a downward pressure for downside gold.
CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that markets have priced in a 70% chance of a 50bp FED rate hike in December.
As a result, good economic data will have less impact on the rise of the dollar, while bad economic data can severely downward pressure on the US dollar.

Technical View:

From a technical point of view, gold was able to establish itself above the range of $1730. It can range between 1730$ and 1764$
Also, the price is currently trading above the moving average of 200, which shows that the bullish bias stays intact.
1705$ and 1734$-1730$ are important to support levels.
1760$ and 1780$ are important resistance.

Gold trade idea, base on US calendar data print by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

Important Calendar events:

ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, JOB OPENINGS, HOME SALES, JOBLESS CLAIMS and ISM PMI

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish labor market data for the month of November.
Non-farm payrolls (NFP) are expected to decline by 39,000 following growth of 239,000 in October.
A print of less than 200,000 will likely weigh on the US dollar and push gold higher.
A disappointing jobs report on Wednesday and Thursday could signal a smaller interest rate hike for the Federal Reserve.
If the market has such an assessment, it will reduce the yield of US bonds, which is extremely beneficial for the rise of gold.
On Thursday, the ISM Institute will release the manufacturing PMI data for November. The PMI is expected to drop to 49.8 from 50.2 in October.
If the ISM PMI report shows that price pressures ease in November, the US dollar may come under selling pressure. And in this scenario, gold prices can rise in short-term reactions

We will be waiting for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday

Key points and overview:

• We can think about it to buy at lower prices with the lowest risk.
• Disappointing home and building sales data could bolster expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow its rate of contraction.
• End-of-week flows could change the sentiment and play an important role in keeping gold on the sidelines ahead of next week’s Fed meeting minutes.

Analysis:

About 10% growth last week! What can be said? Sharpe’s move last week narrows the way for Saud in the short term. Gold needs correction.
The Federal Reserve will likely indicate that it will continue to raise interest rates. What we expect according to recent job market data.
It is true that we are cautious because the change in the contractionary policies of the Federal Reserve is likely, but we cannot expect such a short-term reduction in inflation data alone.
We will need at least a few months of consecutive downward inflation.
On the other hand, the sudden growth of gold last week showed how attractive the price of gold is for buyers, I mean the price of $1,620. They think these prices are cheap.

Since we don’t know how strong the Federal Reserve will be in its upcoming meetings, or we don’t know if they will talk more softly, selling gold is a bit risky.
We have to wait because the Fed’s job with inflation is not done yet. On the other hand, many buyers are waiting in the low prices area.
Our suggestion is simple, let’s wait for this last growth of gold to rest in a correction, we can think about it to buy at lower prices with the lowest risk.

The Fed’s pressure on the dollar to control inflation will put the US into a recession.
We cannot accurately determine the magnitude of this recession, but what is clear is that it will be a recession, and the winners of this recession are gold buyers.

Technical View:

The head and shoulder pattern is ready to be broken in the 1-hour time frame. The tide of this pattern can make gold bearish in the short term.
You can accompany gold in the downward movement by keeping the risk low because the Federal Reserve supports you.
But our team tries to be on the lookout to be a buyer of gold at lower prices.

• Failure of 1745$ levels can lead the way for gold to fall to the 1720$ and 1700$ levels.

Important Calendar events:

This week we will have construction data. Disappointing data could reinforce expectations of a slowdown in the Fed’s pace of contraction. The decline in the value of the US dollar can be the engine for gold to rise again.
However, End-of-week flows could change the sentiment and play an important role in keeping gold on the sidelines ahead of next week’s Fed meeting minutes.

We will be waiting for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday

📌 Key points and overview:

• Fundamentally, we will only think about buy positions when there is a clear change in FED policies.
• We are looking for another sell opportunity at $1680 and $1700 levels
• US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI and JOLTS JOB OPENINGS(SEP) are predicted tools for Wednesday 2Nov FOMC STATEMENT and FED INTEREST RATE DECISION

📝 Analysis:

Gold in the past week!

In the past week, gold has stopped following an uptrend as the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, which rose nearly 1% in the last few days of the week, forced gold to pull back.
Another reason for the decline in gold can be attributed to the rebound correction of the dollar index last weekend.

But in relation to this week,
The issue that analysts and big traders in the market have a consensus on is the risk and the possibility of slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Over the past months, we have consistently seen extremely aggressive Federal Reserve policies.
Aggressive increases in interest rates put pressure on the forex market. What we saw in both gold and cryptocurrency.

But what is now apparent to traders are two issues

1. Slowing down the rate of inflation increases the speculation for the softening of the Federal Reserve’s policies
2. Although inflation has not decreased significantly, we have seen decreases in the labor market
   Analysts and traders predict the possibility of the last cycle of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve

We never trade based on probabilities, but we tell all the possibilities in order to have a correct view of the market and avoid ambiguous trades.
So, according to the information mentioned above, we will be waiting for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, November 2, together with the big market traders. The results obtained from this meeting will give us a better view of the future of gold.

📉 Technical view:

🔸 $1620 is our strong support area and $1680

🔸By technical point of view, if I am looking to buy gold, I’m waiting for the price of gold stabilize above the rate of $1,700

🔸But Personally, We are looking for another sell opportunity at $1680 and $1700 levels, and for taking any long positions, fundamentally, We will only think about it when there is a clear change in FED policies.

3 possible gold movement depended on FED decisions by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

📰 Important calendar events:
This week, a higher print of China MANUFACTURING PMI could be a driver for starting the week and the hope of the market.
And the highlighted events are US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI and JOLTS JOB OPENINGS(SEP)
because they are predicted tools for Wednesday 2Nov FOMC STATEMENT and FED INTEREST RATE DECISION
Any higher print could push down the gold and stocks

The short-term rise of gold does not reduce the pressure of the Federal Reserve in the market.

📌 Key points and overview:

• Inflation data on home sales and jobless claims could be scenes of the Fed’s continued trend
• $1670 and $1680 could be your resistance to sell opportunity and $1620 could be your target

📝 Analysis:

Gold in the past week!

The news of the Wall Street Journal and the possible intervention of the yen at the end of the week caused great fluctuations in the market and caused the gold market to turn green. The market is looking for clues about these fluctuations to make sure, it has the power to join these fluctuations or the news.
The Wall Street Journal reported that some members of the Federal Reserve are considering slowing the pace of rate hikes after November as volatility and uncertainty grip financial markets. Therefore, many traders thought that it was the end of the Federal Reserve.

This week’s calendar is full of important news. First, we have the meeting of the central bank of Canada ahead of which the markets expect an increase in interest rates, but there is a difference of opinion about the amount of this increase. Meanwhile, in Europe, a 0.75% increase by the European Central Bank is almost certain and now the emphasis is on the press conference. Finally, we come to the Bank of Japan, where all experts believe that there is currently no plan to increase interest rates.

Considering the upward momentum of gold and the intervention of the Central Bank of Japan in the promissory note market, it is possible that we will continue to see growth in gold, but we do not suggest that you follow the gold market in order to buy. We are not yet at the end of the contractionary policy cycle and this could keep pressure on gold.

The short-term rise of gold does not reduce the pressure of the Federal Reserve in the market.

Although gold is at attractive prices, making it an attractive long-term buy, it will remain bearish in the short term as banks pursue monetary tightening policies and the Federal Reserve is not yet ready to turn around its policies, which supports the US dollar and will put pressure on gold.

Big traders think of buying gold only when there is no more pressure from the Federal Reserve and the growth of the dollar, and the first signs of this should be followed by successive reductions in inflation.

📉 Technical view:

🔸 $1670 and $1680 could be your resistance to sell opportunity and $1620 could be your target

Gold short-term rise does not reduce the pressure of the FED by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

📰 Important calendar events

This week’s New home sales data and the number of Pending Home sales, as well as the release of jobless claims data, could give us big clues as to what the Federal Reserve is predicting.

Gold is trying to go down to the $1620 area because of U.S inflation and the last CPI print

📌 Key points and overview:

• Considering the market’s reaction to last week’s inflation data, we predict that market traders will prepare themselves for the aggressiveness of the next FOMC session.
• Traders should focus on the Home sales calendar data and Russia and Ukraine Political, and military tensions news
• Fundamental bias is Bearish, Trend is SELL
• Retail traders are in long positions

📝 Analysis:

Over the past few months, any increasing sign in US inflation has caused gold to fall because it forces the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
The Federal Reserve will increase the interest rate with the increase in inflation, but on the other hand, the only issue that can stop the increase in interest rates is the employment data and the increase of the unemployed.
Following the consumer price index and inflation data, the US dollar recovered from its weekly lows and put downward pressure on gold.
Strong U.S. consumer inflation numbers reaffirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve will stick to its aggressive policy tightening path.
Because we knew this information, we could predict the trend of the last week correctly.
We said that any correction of the price of gold upwards can provide a new selling position.
According to CME FedWatch, the U.S. dollar’s strong growth comes from a 99% expectation of a 75bp interest rate hike in November, a 74 percent chance of a 50 basis point hike in December, and possibly a series of smaller hikes in February, and March.
As long as the current macro environment holds, more downside is likely for gold.
Considering the market’s reaction to last week’s inflation data, we predict that market traders will prepare themselves for the aggressiveness of the next FOMC session.

📉 Technical view:

🔸 The leading economic data this week is data on home sales and building permits
🔸 In addition to economic data, we should focus on the events of Russia and Ukraine Political, and military tensions
🔸 From a technical point of view, the next target of sellers is $1620 and any retracement to the $1660-$1670 is another selling opportunity.

Weekly gold analysis and opportunity by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

📰 Important calendar events

Wed Oct 19

• Building Permits (Sep)
• Crude Oil Inventories

Thu Oct 20

• Initial Jobless Claims
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
• Existing Home Sales (Sep)

📝 Weekly gold

This year, stocks down around 20%, the Dollar index is at higher highs of 112.17 since 2002, and US10Y is at a higher value than 10 years ago.
Traders invest in Gold to protect their assets from inflations but now, all the headlines talk about recession.
Rising bond yields, the Central bank’s Interest rate Hikes, and the strength of the US dollar were the most important pressure, and bearish drivers, for gold and stocks in the third quarter.
But, the last week, With high inflation in the world, which requires a Hawkish monetary policy, the British central bank (BOE) began to collect and buy bonds!!
The action of the British central bank, unlike the other bank’s hawkish policies, surprised everyone and created strange turbulences in the currency market and supports stocks.

Now, Whats the point?

◽️ Traders will keep eyes on global bond markets for next week because if the Bank of England’s strange policies continue, it could help gold to rise
while the Bank of Japan, which is concerned about high prices in USDJPY, should intervene in the forex market. In addition to buying yen, they can sell US bonds in the markets and witness fluctuations in bond yields.

◽️ The risk of the economic recession is the driver of the rise of gold. But in the short term, the attention of all traders is on contractionary policies and decisions of central banks, which can put pressure on gold.
As we told you in last week’s analysis, any upside movement in gold will be short-term and provide a selling opportunity.
Because the US dollar is in the overbought zone and also the bonds are at their highest points, the take profits have the possibility of raising the price of the gold.
On the other hand, due to the hawkish policies of the central banks as well as the US central bank, this pressure on gold will not be removed
and as long as we observe the rotation of the monetary policies of the central banks, we cannot expect a stable rise for gold.

◽️ The world’s largest bond market has fluctuated strongly in the last week due to the fear of the British debt crisis.
But, with the intervention of the BOE and the introduction of the government bond purchase program, the treasury bonds’ price fall was compensated.
The trend changed as the Bank of England intervened in the bond market and it lowered the yield of American bonds.
Now, in addition to the policies of the Federal Reserve, other central banks also affect bonds and we have to care about them.

For this week in the American economic calendar, we have mixed data.
The forecast for ISM PMI is 52.2 and ISM PMI 56 and both of them decreased
Aug Job openings forecast a decrease in employment, but ADP nonfarm Employment changes show an increase.
The jobless claims index is more than the previous number and NFP payrolls decreased.

🔻 As we said in the analysis, gold is bearish in the medium and long term until we see a turn in the contractionary policies of the central banks
But this week due to the upcoming economic data and the possibility of correction of the US dollar index and US bond yields, there is a possibility of gold increase.
However, we predict a turbulent week and our suggestion to traders is to wait this week and sell gold from the high points.

🔻 $1700 to $1724 is our sightly range to looking the short opportunity to the$1620 area

Weekly gold, another short opportunity by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

📝 Weekly gold

From the beginning of 2022 to this moment, It was the best for the US dollar.
In the last 9 months, this global reserve currency has taken full advantage of the increase in interest rates, risk-averse flows, and the lack of a suitable alternative during the recession.
In last Powell speak, he said, would do whatever it takes to control inflation, even if the measures lead to recession. This strengthened the US dollar again and kept the rise of gold.

◽️ A strong labor market has convinced the Fed chief that the economy can withstand the central bank’s contractionary policies without going into recession According to this, interest rates will remain at high levels for a while

◽️ Gold has room to see higher prices but, we have to be more careful about our trades when FED is ready for another new hike.
Currently, the market has priced in an 85% probability of a 0.75% interest rate hike for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

◽️ This week’s economic data is very important like previous weeks because inflation data (CPI) can show the roadmap of the central bank and how successful it is in curbing inflation.
Inflationary expectations have decreased slightly and if it continues for several months, it will lead traders to bet on reducing hawkish policies.
A weaker release data could be pressure on the USD and could push the gold too and the effect could be just for a short term Because we know about the policies of the central bank and the 4% target at the end of the year

🔻 What our team predicts is that the dollar will have a downward bias this week due to lower inflation expectations, and for that reason, gold can grow in the short term.
but keep in mind, that the mid-term bias of the US dollar is bullish and Gold is bearish. So you should expect a little upward return for gold.

🔻 Your support levels could be $1690 and $1700, and the resistance for your long positions is $1728 and $1745
🔻 A price fixing above the $1728 area can lead to higher rates for gold. District $1745 and $1760

Long on GOLD, just for short-term by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

📝 Weekly gold

◽️ Gold jumped more than 1 percent in its final days after last week’s sharp decline, led by weaker U.S. jobs data, but remains under pressure from higher interest rates to continue its downtrend.

◽️ The number of jobs reported was close to market expectations and the market reaction to that data was neither good nor bad. But it had a same result for invetors. However, the jobs data was not very good and this makes the Federal Reserve pay more to continue its policies.

◽️ Gold remains under pressure due to the increase in interest rates by the world’s central banks, which recently Europe also had to give in to this increase in interest rates. Because higher rates of banks with the lowest risk can be better than gold or any other assets with a lower yield.

◽️ As long as the current upward rally of the dollar continues, gold will also be dominated by the dollar on the margins, but important thing is that the dollar has been buying at the upper areas for a long time, and any speculators taking profit can be a strong driver for gold buyers.

◽️ The meetings of the ECB, BOC, and Australian RBA for their interest rate hike next week can melt some frozen attention from the US dollar to themselves, and this can be a correction for the dollar and a little rise for gold.

Bearish forecast by The Ziwox AI is around 56% and Bullish is around 38%

Fundamental bias is Bearsih, retail traders position ratio are almost equal, 45% Long vs 55% short

and the COT report shows that 6% of speculators were close their buy positions.

🔻 From a technical point of view, the decline and stabilization of the gold price below the price of 1680 will leave no way for gold to rise. But our analysis team sees the price of gold above $1,700 for at least this week because everything is set for a short-term turnaround. The pullback of gold to the level of $1,700 can raise gold to $1,728.

Weekly Gold analysis by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com