Weekly gold analysis

◽️ With inflation decreasing and expectations of the FED hawkish policies withdrawal, gold was bullish in the past weeks

◽️ Signs of deflation have dampened the possibility of a 75bsp hike in September and weakened the dollar, but on the other hand, it has revived the stock market. This followed the adjustment in July’s CPI and PPI.

◽️ Due to the confusion after the latest inflation report (CPI, PPI), the market’s attention will be on economic growth data and Home sales. the housing sector is important for the economy that will be monitored for possible signs of recession.

◽️ July building permits and construction starts will be released on Tuesday and existing home sales on Thursday.

◽️ Despite intensifying fears of a recession due to negative pressure countering declining bond yields, recent positive data have had a complex effect on reducing risk-taking sentiment.

◽️ So a weak release of retail sales data could have a bigger reaction in the stock market, at least this time around. The dollar, however, may see a more limited decline as investors await the minutes of the Fed’s meeting to adjust their decision based on the Federal Reserve’s stance in September.

🔻 It is still too early to declare victory over inflation

🔻 According to analysts, the return of the dollar to the upward trend next week may put pressure on gold

🔻 A good release of retail sales and industrial production data will be consistent with Q2 GDP growth of 2-2.5% and will likely boost the Dela. The initial support for gold is in 1765

Weekly gold analysis

◽️ Last week, our expectation from the employment and wages report was weak data and weak US dollar, and rising gold.

◽️ Although the US data performed better than expected, it pushed gold to higher prices because everyone was shorting for weak data.

◽️ But now, after the publication of the NFP data, again we predict gold with a very high probability of downward pressure

◽️ Accordance to the CFTC report (COT), a 34% increase in gold long positions in the past week before the NFP data was about traders betting on a bad NFP release.

◽️ But now closing those long positions, can bring more downward pressure on gold

◽️ Now the possibility of an increase in American interest rates is higher than in the past

🔻 The possibility of FED interest rate increase is higher than past, and gold will lose its strength.

🔻 if $1750 support failed, Gold can see the $1720 and $1700 levels.

Weekly gold analysis

◽️ After weeks, gold prices ended the week with a 2% gain because of Less hawkish Fed talks and gave hopes to gold buyers

◽️ Jerome Powell said that further aggressive tightening remains possible because we don’t see any cessation sign in the market and we are focused on employment data.

◽️ But Commodities, risky assets, stocks, and gold grew, only for one reason, The Fed said there is a possible slowing of rising interest rates and we would remain data-dependent.

◽️The space for gold is growing up to $1785-$1800 available, but it is still too early to be sure about the upward trend because we still have the hawkish policies of the USA.

🔻 We have to pay attention to Friday’s NFP report and Unemployment Rate because they show the next road map for FED

🔻 We predict a lower number for NFP, so we will spect the growth of gold next week

WEEKLY GOLD HINT and analysis

Weekly gold analysis

◽️ Technically, gold has formed its price floor and is supported on $1680-$1690 area

◽️ Most markets and stocks, as well as high-beta assets, were all bearish, it can be a little hopeful for gold

◽️ Dcline of the dollar index, It seems that all the hawkish monetary policies of the FED are priced in the market and probably, we won’t see big moves in the dollar again

◽️ Along with the dollar, there are signs that the peak in real yields may be behind us, which could be another driver for gold growth.

◽️ Downside risks for the euro zone, as well as the energy crisis, put pressure on this currency and increase the possibility of gold and USD Growth

🔻 A slowdown in the U.S. economy could slow the Fed’s actions. last week, S&P Institute data showed a reduction in economic production and services, so there is a retreat possibility for raising 75bp interest rates by FED

🔻 $1750 is the first and important resistance level

WEEKLY GOLD HINT and analysis

Weekly gold analysis

◽️ We are having the worst weeks for gold. The US dollar is at its turning point, the price of gold has dropped to its lowest level in the past one year, and the euro has reached parity after 20 years.

◽️ Last week’s economic data showed that with all the FED pressures and interest rate hikes US economy is still buoyant.

◽️ As a result, The FED’s leeway for interest rate hikes has increased. In such an environment, real yields have risen along with the dollar index, both of which are putting downward pressure on the Gold.

◽️ Gold will not rise unless there are some signs of dovish and less hawkish from the Fed monetary policy.

◽️ Note that US inflation has reached 9.1% and the Federal Reserve will eventually try to curb this inflation.

🔻 In technical view, there aren’t any significant support/buyer in gold low levels. So you have to be a little cautious to buy gold.

🔻 In our opinion, Best decision for gold, is waiting for any revision of the FED’s economic pressure policies

WEEKLY GOLD HINT and analysis

Weekly gold analysis

◽️ Gold disappointed traders last week and recorded 4% decrease, lowest price in the last two months

◽️ FED consensus for hike another 75bp interest rates to suppress inflation, so gold will continue to trade in confusion next week.

◽️ But the point is that with the previous FED pressures and the global consensus for ordering the supply of energy, we saw some commodities prices decrease last weeks.

◽️ As a result, there is a possibility of reductions in prices, then the lower CPI index release can be healing for gold growth.

◽️ Gold is in the good support levels, and we can predict a short-term retracement in prices

◽️ Recent drop is mostly due to the rise of the dollar index, and technicallyis is in OB level. So any correction becomes stronger

🔻 Gold is in a short trend, even with these support levels, We tend to be a spectator and wait for some long trend signs

🔻 Support levels are $1719 – $1687 and resistance levels on the way are $1762 – $1776 and $1808

WEEKLY GOLD HINT and analysis

Weekly gold analysis

◽️ Last week Gold closed with negative red prices and shows us that the short-term sentiment is still bearish.

◽️ Last downside movement despite the G7 news that four members decided to ban imports of Russian gold and also US Durable Goods Orders helps this falling.

◽️ Gold is ranging between buyers due to the favorable price of $1,800 and sellers with the Risk of rising interest rates around the world.

◽️ Eurozone inflation hit 8.6% year-on-year in June, so we expect more globally hawkish policy. inflation is increasing and will be a roadblock for gold.

◽️ Gold prices will continue to pressure as the Federal Reserve moves to raise interest rates and we are ready for a new 75bp interest rate hike this month

🔻 Keep eyes on FOMC Minutes and US Nonfarm Payrolls data to catch US monetary policy

🔻 We are looking for sells gold on any jumps around $1825 – $1840

Weekly gold analysis

◽️ Gold continues to fluctuate below $1,830 on last week. becasue Riska and the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is up more than 1% on the day, gold limiting to upside.

◽️ Gold is traded in ambiguity But it still keeps its position in these market pressure conditions where the dollar is strong and the yields on treasury bonds are high.

◽️ This week we have a lot of important news on USD. The G7 remarks can also be very important for us. Any sign of a recession could be an impulse gold to the higher

◽️ Technically, gold is in rage. So if you want to make a deal, put your rewards between $1800 and $1871

🔻 Concerns about further gold declines are only rising real interest rates, which weighs on traders’ sentiment.

🔻 Keep eyes on G7 accounts and economic data on this week’s calendar:

🔻 G7 meeting, US Core Durable Goods Orders (Mon), ECB President Lagarde Speaks (Mon), Fed Chair Powell Speaks (Wed), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Fri)

WEEKLY GOLD HINT and analysis

Weekly gold analysis

◽️ FED raised the interest rate 75bp on Wednesday, the highest level in 28 years, But the gold market has shown good resistance to this sharp hike in interest rates

◽️ Rising fears of a recession have led to a sharp drop in the stock market, cryptocurrency, and ounce support in the 1800s.

◽️ Investors who are selling their stock, and their Cryptocurrency assets, will definitely invest some of their capital in gold.

◽️ But remember this point, Big Investors and Business owners have to sell their gold and cryptos to provide the margins they need and protect their companies.

🔻 So, because of recession risk, we may have a short-term downside on gold, But in long term, what we predicted, gold is in good support

🔻 As long as the price of gold remains between 1878 and 1787, it is technically considered a neutral move.

🔻 Gold will reach $2,000 when the Federal Reserve no longer puts pressure on the economy, and the government increases spending again.

WEEKLY GOLD HINT and analysis

Weekly gold analysis

◽️ Last week wee see an intense flight for gold, main reason was escape from the inflationary recession.

◽️ Despite the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policies, inflation remains high, and this is a major sign of recession, So gold got a great support.

◽️ Investors have deep doubts about the Fed’s ability to contain inflation.

◽️ The rise in gold prices came after the US Department of Labor announced that the consumer price index in May had risen 8.6 percent from a year earlier.

◽️ The Federal Reserve’s decision on this week could put more short-term pressure on gold.

◽️ The Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday, June 15

🔻 So our forecast is short-term bearish because the fed monetary policy

🔻 But it has a long way to go because we predict the Federal Reserve cannot reduce inflationary pressures

🔻 The market calms down a bit this week after digestion, but as we mentioned earlier, gold stays bullish for a long time.

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