📝 Weekly gold

From the beginning of 2022 to this moment, It was the best for the US dollar.
In the last 9 months, this global reserve currency has taken full advantage of the increase in interest rates, risk-averse flows, and the lack of a suitable alternative during the recession.
In last Powell speak, he said, would do whatever it takes to control inflation, even if the measures lead to recession. This strengthened the US dollar again and kept the rise of gold.

◽️ A strong labor market has convinced the Fed chief that the economy can withstand the central bank’s contractionary policies without going into recession According to this, interest rates will remain at high levels for a while

◽️ Gold has room to see higher prices but, we have to be more careful about our trades when FED is ready for another new hike.
Currently, the market has priced in an 85% probability of a 0.75% interest rate hike for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

◽️ This week’s economic data is very important like previous weeks because inflation data (CPI) can show the roadmap of the central bank and how successful it is in curbing inflation.
Inflationary expectations have decreased slightly and if it continues for several months, it will lead traders to bet on reducing hawkish policies.
A weaker release data could be pressure on the USD and could push the gold too and the effect could be just for a short term Because we know about the policies of the central bank and the 4% target at the end of the year

🔻 What our team predicts is that the dollar will have a downward bias this week due to lower inflation expectations, and for that reason, gold can grow in the short term.
but keep in mind, that the mid-term bias of the US dollar is bullish and Gold is bearish. So you should expect a little upward return for gold.

🔻 Your support levels could be $1690 and $1700, and the resistance for your long positions is $1728 and $1745
🔻 A price fixing above the $1728 area can lead to higher rates for gold. District $1745 and $1760

Long on GOLD, just for short-term by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com

📝 Weekly gold

◽️ Gold jumped more than 1 percent in its final days after last week’s sharp decline, led by weaker U.S. jobs data, but remains under pressure from higher interest rates to continue its downtrend.

◽️ The number of jobs reported was close to market expectations and the market reaction to that data was neither good nor bad. But it had a same result for invetors. However, the jobs data was not very good and this makes the Federal Reserve pay more to continue its policies.

◽️ Gold remains under pressure due to the increase in interest rates by the world’s central banks, which recently Europe also had to give in to this increase in interest rates. Because higher rates of banks with the lowest risk can be better than gold or any other assets with a lower yield.

◽️ As long as the current upward rally of the dollar continues, gold will also be dominated by the dollar on the margins, but important thing is that the dollar has been buying at the upper areas for a long time, and any speculators taking profit can be a strong driver for gold buyers.

◽️ The meetings of the ECB, BOC, and Australian RBA for their interest rate hike next week can melt some frozen attention from the US dollar to themselves, and this can be a correction for the dollar and a little rise for gold.

Bearish forecast by The Ziwox AI is around 56% and Bullish is around 38%

Fundamental bias is Bearsih, retail traders position ratio are almost equal, 45% Long vs 55% short

and the COT report shows that 6% of speculators were close their buy positions.

🔻 From a technical point of view, the decline and stabilization of the gold price below the price of 1680 will leave no way for gold to rise. But our analysis team sees the price of gold above $1,700 for at least this week because everything is set for a short-term turnaround. The pullback of gold to the level of $1,700 can raise gold to $1,728.

Weekly Gold analysis by Alisabbaghi on TradingView.com