Last week, global markets experienced a mix of concern and cautious anticipation. The historic U.S. government shutdown, now entering its 38th day, has cast a shadow of uncertainty over the economic landscape, suspending the release of official data. This gap has pushed analysts to rely on alternative indicators such as ADP employment reports, ISM indices, and consumer surveys, all of which paint a picture of slowing economic growth and weakening market sentiment.

Meanwhile, central banks from London to Sydney remained in a “policy pause,” focusing more on monitoring conditions than taking immediate action. Global equity markets faced waves of selling pressure, cryptocurrencies recorded double-digit losses, and gold reclaimed its safe-haven status. The upcoming week appears critical for gauging the trajectory of monetary policy, employment data, and the broader global economic outlook. Here’s your comprehensive Forex weekly analysis for November 10, 2025.

Key Takeaways

  • The U.S. government shutdown has entered its sixth week, still blocking key data releases such as CPI and PPI.
  • U.S. labor markets show signs of hiring weakness but no significant uptick in layoffs.
  • U.S. consumer confidence has dropped to a three-year low.
  • Central banks, including the BoE and RBA, kept interest rates unchanged.
  • Employment and GDP data from the U.K. and China are the main focus for the week ahead.
  • In Canada, strong employment growth and an expansionary budget reduce the likelihood of a BoC rate cut.
  • Global equity markets have seen significant declines, while gold and U.S. Treasuries gained.
  • Cryptocurrencies experienced their steepest weekly correction since early summer.

Week in Review

Markets began the week amid unprecedented uncertainty, the highest since the 2019 debt crisis. The prolonged U.S. government shutdown has disrupted the normal flow of economic data and made it difficult for investors to assess the real state of the economy. With official data unavailable, analysts turned to private-sector indicators such as the ADP employment report and ISM indices.

Private-Sector Indicators Take the Lead

The ADP report showed that U.S. private-sector employment increased by just 42,000 in October, a slight improvement from the previous month but still signaling weak hiring. Meanwhile, the ISM Services Employment Index remains in contractionary territory. These figures indicate a “low hiring, low layoffs” environment — neither signaling a robust expansion nor a severe recession.

The Challenger Job Cuts report revealed over 150,000 planned layoffs in October, the highest in six months. While unemployment claims remain within normal ranges, this rise in announced cuts reflects growing caution among corporate managers.

Consumer sentiment also painted a concerning picture. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell for the fourth consecutive month, hitting its lowest level since 2022. Only 37% of respondents considered it a good time to buy durable goods, reminiscent of the early stages of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Expected inflation remained at 4.7%, reinforcing concerns about inflation persistence.

U.S. Economic Data (as of November 10, 2025)

  • Private-sector employment growth remains subdued.
  • Consumer confidence continues to decline.
  • Inflation expectations remain elevated.

Canada: Signs of Strength

In contrast to the U.S., Canada displayed stronger economic signals. October employment grew by 67,000 jobs, significantly exceeding forecasts, with wages also showing notable gains. Coupled with the federal government’s expansionary budget, this removes the likelihood of a Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cut. TD Bank analysts anticipate a steady monetary policy stance continuing into 2026.

Europe and the Bank of England

In Europe, the Bank of England (BoE) maintained its policy rate at 4% in a close 5-4 vote. While the statement slightly leaned toward potential easing, the BoE emphasized that persistent inflationary pressures mean no imminent rate cuts. Economic growth forecasts for 2025 improved slightly, but unemployment expectations remain elevated, highlighting structural labor market weaknesses.

Asia-Pacific

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 3.6%, citing likely transitory inflation pressures. However, 2026 inflation forecasts rose from 3.1% to 3.7%, delaying market expectations for future rate cuts.

Global equity markets were hit hard: the NASDAQ fell over 3.5%, while the Dow Jones declined about 1.5%. Investors, wary of slowing global growth, rising real rates, and political uncertainties, fled riskier assets. Cryptocurrencies, led by Bitcoin, saw declines exceeding 5%, while Ethereum and Solana experienced double-digit drops.

Conversely, safe-haven assets rallied. Gold rebounded above $4,000, and U.S. Treasuries gained sharply, reflecting a marked decline in global risk appetite.

In summary, last week was characterized by investor uncertainty, reduced risk-taking, and a return to safe-haven assets. All eyes are now on the upcoming week, which will feature key employment data from the U.K. and China, as well as potential developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown.

Market Update and Week Ahead

As the new week begins, markets remain in a state of wait-and-see. The prolonged U.S. government shutdown not only delays official data but also elevates uncertainty to a primary driver of pricing. Investors are now looking outside the U.S. to the U.K., Europe, China, and Australia for clues on growth and monetary policy.

In the U.S., despite ongoing hopes for a political resolution, the timing of a government reopening remains unpredictable. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, which had slightly risen after last week’s early declines, fell again as investors flocked to safe-haven assets. Equity market volatility remains elevated, particularly for tech stocks, especially those tied to AI-related sectors.

Gold continues to shine amid geopolitical risks and a weaker U.S. dollar, while crude oil faces downward pressure due to concerns over potentially slowing U.S. demand.

Key Market Drivers (Week Ending November 15, 2025)

U.S. Government Shutdown

The political stalemate in Washington remains the week’s primary driver. Each day of delay impacts economic indicators, from employment figures to inflation releases. Markets currently price based on private-sector data, but investors know that without official numbers, Fed decision-making becomes even murkier. Any progress in negotiations could temporarily boost the U.S. dollar and equities.

U.K. Employment and GDP Data

BoE has emphasized that upcoming labor and production data will be pivotal for its December meeting. Quarterly employment reports and the unemployment rate, released Tuesday, will serve as key indicators of U.K. labor market health. The Q3 GDP, released Thursday, is expected to show a modest 0.2% quarterly growth.

China Industrial and Retail Data

China’s economy continues to struggle with slow growth. Industrial production and retail sales data, due Friday, will influence market expectations for further PBOC stimulus, directly affecting Asian currencies like AUD and NZD.

Monetary Policy in Canada and Australia

Strong Canadian employment and expansionary budgets suggest the BoC will maintain its “steady” stance. In Australia, post-RBA rate hold, attention shifts to employment data Wednesday night, with weak numbers possibly sparking speculation of early 2026 rate cuts.

Market Sentiment and Risk Aversion

With equities and crypto markets under pressure, investors are rotating into safe-haven assets like gold, JPY, and U.S. Treasuries. Any further sell-off in risk assets could support the USD, although absent reliable economic data, a sustained bullish dollar trend remains unlikely.

Currency Outlook

USD

Central to global markets but facing uncertainty due to the shutdown. Weak hiring and declining consumer confidence suggest downward pressure, yet risk aversion and safe-haven demand support the USD. Expect a balanced, volatile range this week.

GBP

Awaiting U.K. employment and GDP releases, which will guide BoE policy. Weak labor data could weigh on the pound in the short term, particularly against USD and EUR.

EUR

Neutral against USD last week amid weak Eurozone data. Upcoming employment and GDP numbers may set the next direction. Short-term movements will follow global risk sentiment and USD trends.

CAD

Supported by strong employment and expansionary fiscal policy. Unless oil prices drop sharply, CAD is likely to remain stable to mildly bullish.

AUD

Sensitive to Australian labor data and Chinese economic releases. Unexpected weakness in Australian employment may drag AUD lower, while stronger-than-expected Chinese numbers could boost it.

NZD

RBNZ inflation expectations will be released early in the week. A drop may signal an earlier-than-expected rate cut, though NZD remains highly China-dependent. Outlook: cautious and neutral.

JPY

Continues as a safe-haven. Global equity weakness increases demand for JPY. Its relative strength may persist unless a rapid U.S. government reopening triggers a capital outflow.

Final Thoughts

Global markets have entered a phase of intersecting political uncertainty and economic fragility. The U.S. government shutdown has become a symbol of policy challenges in the world’s largest economy. Until official data resumes, accurate assessments of the economic landscape remain difficult. Traders should focus on risk management, position sizing, and global data more than ever.

Central banks remain cautious. Despite signs of moderating inflation, no major policymaker is rushing to cut rates. “Pause and wait” appears to be the shared strategy from London to Canberra and even Brasília.

In this environment, a combination of U.K. and Chinese employment data, alongside potential developments in Washington, will likely dictate trading patterns. A resolution to the U.S. shutdown could restore risk appetite and temporarily strengthen the dollar. Conversely, continued stalemate could drive investors further toward gold, JPY, and Treasuries.

Forex markets are always sensitive to unexpected events. Even a single headline from Washington, London, or Beijing can shift trends. A macro view, disciplined risk management, and daily analysis updates will be key to navigating this uncertain week.

 

⚠️ Risk Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not direct investment advice. Forex and financial markets carry high risk and may result in capital loss. Investment decisions should be made based on personal goals, risk tolerance, and financial circumstances.