Fadwatch: The probability of a 0.25% interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in May has decreased to 33%.
The Federal Reserve bond interest rate is expected to reach 3.96% in December.
7 members out of 9 voting members of the Bank of England voted to increase and 2 members voted not to change the interest rate.
Second-quarter inflation is likely to be lower than forecast in February due to longer-term energy price caps and lower wholesale prices.
If there are signs of continued price pressures, further tightening of monetary policy is necessary.
The UK banking system has strong capital and liquidity and remains resilient.
Unexpectedly strong core inflation in February reflects clothing prices that may not last long.
The UK banking system is well placed to support the economy, including in a period of higher interest rates.
We will continue to pay particular attention to UK credit conditions.
Wage growth is likely to ease slightly faster than forecast in February as inflation expectations ease.
The fiscal support in March’s budget would boost GDP by around 0.3% in subsequent years.
Businesses expect inflation next year to reach 5.6 percent in the three months to February, compared with 6.2 percent in the three months to November.
No increase in the unemployment rate is forecast and we forecast 0.2% employment growth in the second quarter, up from the -0.4% forecast in February.
