Gold’s future is influenced by factors like a projected bullish trend in 2023, with estimates of $1,800 to $2,060 per ounce, and ongoing challenges such as reduced demand from higher real rates and a stronger US dollar. Gold, responsive to US dollar and yield fluctuations, rose 14% from November 2022 to early February 2023 due to a less hawkish US Federal Reserve stance.
In the intricate web of China’s economic partnerships, Australia holds a position of paramount significance. The symbiotic relationship between these two nations goes far beyond mere trade interactions, shaping the contours of Australia’s economic landscape. In this professional market analysis, we will delve into the intricate dance of economic interdependence, exploring the pivotal role played by China and the United States in steering Australia’s fiscal standing and the dynamics of the AUD-USD currency pair.
The global gold market has witnessed intriguing patterns in the past three years, with a notable resistance range between $2,000 and $2,050. This critical threshold has thwarted the upward trajectory of global gold prices on three occasions. However, as we observe the market dynamics approaching this resistance for the fourth time, a new factor emerges into play—news of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate reduction.
The 10-year Treasury bond yield is widely recognized as the benchmark for the global cost of capital and a measure of risk-free returns. Consequently, the disparity between the earnings yield of the S&P 500 index and the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond represents the risk premium associated with stocks.
This rate hike, is the tenth consecutive policy rate hike since July last year, hiking all interest rates by 25bp and the rate is 4.5 right now. Higher inflation and inflation forecasts look like the main drivers of the hike. The ECB’s communication is clear: today was the last hike in the current cycle
Based on the latest market pricing, the probability of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in November has increased to 52%
The pressure of the Saudis on oil opens the oil foot to the forex market.
The US dollar: With the increase in oil prices and the vulnerability of the Euro and the yen from this, the US dollar still has no competitors and is rising in the market.
The market reaction can be considered a clear end to the inflationary cycle. It is driven by recent economic indicators, such as the decrease in job creation and consumer confidence. It’s worth noting that this economic slowdown is not seen as an indication of an upcoming recession, which would necessitate interest rate cuts.
USD strengthened due to the increase in Treasury bond yields driven by strong economic data from the United States
Could Powell be a buyer Despite the Fed’s updated dot plot last week suggesting two more rate hikes may be in the works, market participants are finding it hard to believe. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not convince the market when he held a press conference after the decision. However, he will be given another chance to get his message across this week when he testifies before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday at 5:30 p.m. Tehran time. Will he wake up the US dollar?
